Their history of engineering and execution.
What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up".
Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.
To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.
Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily.
https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...
Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.
Here's one article from 2018 where they secured 100% of the sales rights to an Argentinian lithium mine that is equivalent to all of the lithium Tesla used worldwide in 2021.
https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html
It's actually inconceivable to me how Musk & Tesla were able to launch a new auto manufacturer, especially with a novel drivetrain. The amount of things that had to go right, the number of decisions they had to make, the number of supplier agreements and sales agreements are a massive, monumental lift. The world is a better place for Tesla existing and for proving the market for electric cars.
However...
People massively underestimate the amount of money the big OEMs can throw at these problems. Toyota Group has an entirely separate mining and materials company with as much annual revenue as Tesla's entire org: https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-...
Tesla has ~$100 billion in assets, Toyota has >5x that. I hope Musk settles down with his silly time-wasting edgelord nonsense on Twitter and focuses on Tesla and SpaceX - with more of a steady hand and a singular focus on EVs, I think they could be the largest manufacturer in the world but they're not there yet and a slightly cheaper lithium supply isn't the unique advantage that's going to get them there.
And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...
when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more.
and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.
