This argument always bothers me.

The probability of being in any simulation is conditional on the one above, which necessarily decreases exponentially. Any simulation running an equivalent simulation will do so much slower, so you get a geometric series of degrading probabilities.

The rate of decay will be massive, imagine how long and how much resources it would take us to simulate our universe, even in a hand waved AI+lazy compute way that also spawns subconsciousnesses. The inverse of that is the sequences ratio.

So even in theory, the probability of you being in any of the simulated universes is P(we can simulate a universe) / (1-1/time to simulate) - prob we’re in the top universe.

Thinking this probability is overwhelming because of the nesting effect is false.

The only thing about the branching simulations is they are likely simplified approximations. There’s no reason it doesn’t nest and that the approximations can observe their approximations of the prior level is strictly more complex than can be observed in the simulation. That should be fundamentally impossible meaning any branch can’t know if they’re the root or the branch, only that they create a branch.