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0 pointsstaticman22y ago0 comments

Who exactly is projecting 6% returns? Vanguard is projecting 10 year returns of 5.2% U.S. returns before inflation and 8.1% international stocks before inflation. At 2% inflation that's 4.56% real returns if you assume 2% inflation and went 50/ 50 on U.S. and international stock. (Non inflation adjusted returns tell you nothing about readiness for retirement so should be avoided).

And that's at 100% stock, which isn't recommended before retirement.

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marcusverus2y ago

6% is the average inflation-adjusted annual return of the US market over the last 150 years.

The specific rate of return will of course vary, year to year and decade to decade but the fact remains that cushy nest eggs aren't only for the rich. Middle class folks can retire in relative comfort and without making drastic sacrifices in the short term.

staticman2OP2y ago

Price to earnings ratio's are about twice what they were historically, https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

which would suggest 3% inflation adjusted returns. This isn't a serious prediction, just an observation that it takes a lot of optimism to tell people they'll get 6% returns because of their preferred data point.

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