I think China can replace its demographic losses in the cities by pulling from the rural areas.
But... with the end of oil as a paramount geopolitical concern due to our domestic production and EVs/alt energy ... why would we keep 13 carrier groups around? WHy are we doing all this "free defense"? Why are we essentially allowing China to own our production and give them a massive technology transfer?
And China is definitely turning totalitarian and incompetent and there are real signs of distress coming out of the country.
Zeihan used to be mocked, but then we signed the chips-in-the-USA and batteries-in-the-USA and more "moving production to Mexico" stories in the news. So there is definitely some re-onshoring happening.
Zeihan also poo-poos alt energy and EVs, he doesn't seem to understand the economics of alt energy in LCOE terms or the recent developments in battery chemistry that free us from nickel/cobalt constraints.
Do you listen to anyone else interesting?
WHy are we doing all this "free defense"? Why are we essentially allowing China to own our production
However, politically China owns your physical factories, and switching production if there's a war over Taiwan is not a two week sprint / 5 point ticket.