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0 pointsmschuster911y ago0 comments

> The chances of SpaceX failing in an irrecoverable way are zero. In some sort of crazy black swan event, a public offering of stock/equity would easily bring in vast sums for them.

Financially, there is almost zero chance for SpaceX to go under at the point they're at - every launch is profitable for them and the margin goes up with each time they can re-use any component, for boosters their record holder was at 19 launches until it was taken out by bad weather during transport [1].

The real danger for SpaceX is Elon Musk, plain and simple. Either he does something really stupid, something even more dumb than playing personal CSR for neo-Nazis, and the US government says "okay, that's f...ing enough now" as a result, or he goes completely against the US government: push for Mars because he finds out he has some sort of cancer or whatnot and wants to die there while the US government wants to first focus on the moon, or turn off services to Ukraine and instead provide services to Russia... or sell critical information to Russia, China or whatever just to stick the finger to the US government (aka, follow the Trumpian way of "I do what I want, what do they wanna do lol").

Yes, the US government can always go and nationalize SpaceX if need be, so it's not too high of a risk for SpaceX to go completely belly-up, but it would mean years upon years of nasty judicial fights.

[1] https://interestingengineering.com/culture/falcon-9-spacexs-...

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philistine1y ago

Their most reused rocket is now 20 launches, and was used in a Galileo launch in an expendable configuration.

https://www.space.com/spacex-galileo-l12-falcon-9-launch

somenameforme1y ago

The only thing that's particularly unique about Elon is that he voices his actual opinions on topics instead of what he thinks will be most well received. It's a throw back to times long since past, where you will find highly visible individuals often had views starkly different than those of the government. It's not that that's changed - if anything I expect there's far less support for government decisions than in the past.

But what has changed is that the government has grown absolutely massive. This growth has created a dependency relationship from many major companies, as falling out of favor with an oft retaliatory government could be ruinous to their margins. Vice versa, the government is not only excessively generous with companies that play ball, but also often turns a blind eye to their offenses. This has driven a culture of widespread self censorship and feigned never-ending approval.

If anything I think Elon voicing his genuine opinions on matters, right or wrong, is one of the most patriotic things he could be doing, because loyalty to a country does not mean loyalty to a government - and often it's the exact opposite. Even in military oaths, for instance, this reality is observed. Officers swear oaths of loyalty not to the government, the President, or even their chain of command, but to the US Constitution. [1] There's endless great quotes from the Founding Fathers on this topic. A few random ones:

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- "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." - James Madison

- "The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions that I wish it to be always kept alive. It will often be exercised when wrong, but better so than not to be exercised at all." - Thomas Jefferson

- "If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

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I think the world, and especially our democracy, would work vastly better if everybody just spoke honestly. Right or wrong, smart or stupid. People freely and openly expressing themselves is the only way a democracy can really function. There is a reason that the 1st Amendment is at the top of the Bill of Rights. And right now we live in a time where this is probably more true than ever. Opposing never-ending wars, rapidly trending towards WW3, and the grossly out of touch and seemingly delusional politicians driving us there, does not demonstrate disloyalty. If anything, the path we're currently on could very well lead to ruin, yet so few are willing to observe that the Emperor has no clothes.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Uniformed_Servic...

fch421y ago

I think it's fine for Elon to voice his opinion, even if direct or hurtful.

He should though have a mirror held in front of him in public occasionally. It works for you alright, but have you considered the consequences of everyone else acting the same way ? What actions do you think will derive from creating an agenda of "do as I do or f** you" ?

It's the categorical imperative of ethics. In the sense that a good (ethical) agenda doesn't derive from "eff all others".

Commentary on, and the questioning of other's opinions is as much a necessary part of free speech as is the right to voice your opinions.

I think we need more commentary, and more questions.

pjc501y ago

> grossly out of touch and seemingly delusional politicians

This has completely taken over the GOP, and yet you can't see that reflected in Elon's tweets.

mschuster91OP1y ago

> People freely and openly expressing themselves is the only way a democracy can really function. There is a reason that the 1st Amendment is at the top of the Bill of Rights.

The problem is, if you don't make sure that there is at least a common baseline of decency, eventually the one willing to fight the dirtiest will win out. "Anything goes, no repercussions" will always lead to a destructive death spiral as politicians and candidates will appeal to lower and lower emotions to score votes, and the ones who feel it most are usually those in a lower position of society: LGBT, migrants, even pregnant women.

We've seen that in Germany in the events running up to 1933, we're seeing it across Europe now with the rise of the far-right willing to do literally anything including running on complete and utter lies (worst example: Brexit and the infamous NHS bus), we're seeing it in the US with the transformation of the GOP into MAGA and the unholy crusade of Evangelicals/White Christian Nationalists ("Project 2025") against everyone who is not like them. And on top of that you got the threat of "stochastic terrorism" - basically, speech that is legal in most jurisdictions, but powerful enough in its message to convince deranged people to act and kill [1].

The US and the UK are the only developed countries in the world which still run on their original constitutions and their principles from centuries ago: a time in which it was completely infeasible to even think about a technology that would allow literally all the village idiots from all over the world to communicate with - and radicalize! - each other, and it was generally assumed that institutions of a government could reasonably rely on other institutions of the government to follow the written and unwritten rules. Everyone else has updated their constitutions in the meantime, mostly due to acts of war, and used the chance to update their systems to learn from the past and its deficiencies.

> - "If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Well, we'll see how that one works out in November this year. The people behind "Project 2025" [2] have made it very, very clear on where they want to take the US - first, purge everyone they deem to be a threat to them from the bureaucracy, and then transition the US into a Christian theocratic dictatorship.

[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/stochastic-terrorism

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

fch421y ago

I disagree with you on the UK running according to a "constitution". It definitely has none.

It runs ancient law / legal precedence; As example, the current government has used "Henry VIIIth powers" (basically ... sovereign edicts) more than once in the last decade. But the UK body of law doesn't denote anything specifically as "constitutional".

That said, it has a strong (legal) history on somewhat-free speech, more recent libel laws notwithstanding, more recent "hate speech" laws notwithstanding.

Free speech alone though only helps public discourse if there is no attempt to "balance" differing views. Trying that has the opposite effect; instead of pointing out flaws and lies in any argument, the mediator simply "gives equal airtime" to conflicting views. That's the perfect way to polarize - choose whom you're with, and whom you're against. Political commentary is rather important, if it's missing, people miss out.

Don't _think_ about what they say. Don't look for common ground. Don't look for lunacies in any side. Just ... pick, ok ? We've shown you both, so ...

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somenameforme1y ago

It's Norway, not the UK (which doesn't even have a formal constitution), with the 2nd oldest active constitution. [1] And they also have ingrained and well supported freedom of speech dating back to 1814. In fact many regular parts of Norwegian discourse would never be allowed in the US, and would be framed as some sort of ultra radical far whatever blah blah end of the world type stuff.

For instance Hjernevask [2] was an extremely popular series aired on the primary state owned broadcasting channel. It was a documentary that was highly critical of gender studies and a variety of other topics related to identity politics. The title translates to "brainwashing." And in 2011, after the documentary aired, Norway did choose to cease funding Nordic Gender Institute, leading to its closure - though they stated that the documentary was not directly why. Yet, lo and behold, Norway remains one the single most egalitarian and gender equal societies in the world.

Open dialogue is not a threat to anything except bad ideas and bad actors. And it's critical to help ensure everybody has a voice in society, even if what's coming out of their mouth is not what you might want to hear. That said I do agree with you the the US constitution could use some updates, but that would be largely to further these aims. So, for instance, I think proportional representation (as Norway swapped to in 1919) is just objectively better than this district based first past the post nonsense.

But the reason for that change is again precisely to make sure everybody has some representation. For instance, rolling with the Norway theme, here is a list of their political parties currently with representation in Parliament. [3] You've got your religious types, your socialists, your right wing populists, an agrarian party, liberal conservatives, and more. In the US we get to choose between pack of idiots #1, pack of idiots #2, and throwing away your vote.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Norway

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hjernevask

[3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_N...

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philistine1y ago

Their most reused rocket is now 20 launches, and was used in a Galileo launch in an expendable configuration.

https://www.space.com/spacex-galileo-l12-falcon-9-launch

somenameforme1y ago

--------

- "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." - James Madison

--------

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Uniformed_Servic...

fch421y ago

I think it's fine for Elon to voice his opinion, even if direct or hurtful.

It's the categorical imperative of ethics. In the sense that a good (ethical) agenda doesn't derive from "eff all others".

Commentary on, and the questioning of other's opinions is as much a necessary part of free speech as is the right to voice your opinions.

I think we need more commentary, and more questions.

pjc501y ago

> grossly out of touch and seemingly delusional politicians

This has completely taken over the GOP, and yet you can't see that reflected in Elon's tweets.

mschuster91OP1y ago

> People freely and openly expressing themselves is the only way a democracy can really function. There is a reason that the 1st Amendment is at the top of the Bill of Rights.

[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/stochastic-terrorism

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

fch421y ago

I disagree with you on the UK running according to a "constitution". It definitely has none.

That said, it has a strong (legal) history on somewhat-free speech, more recent libel laws notwithstanding, more recent "hate speech" laws notwithstanding.

Don't _think_ about what they say. Don't look for common ground. Don't look for lunacies in any side. Just ... pick, ok ? We've shown you both, so ...

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somenameforme1y ago

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Norway

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hjernevask

[3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_N...

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