> This kind of thing shows we are not quite there yet
I think you need to probably consider the time it took to go from 100% wrong, to 90, to 80, etc…. My guess is that interval is probably shrinking from milestone to milestone. This causes me to suspect that folks starting SWE careers in 2024 will not likely not be SWEs before 2030.
That’s why I tell my grandkids they should consider plumbing and HVAC trades instead of college. My bet is within 10 years nearly every vocation that you require a college degree will be made partially or completely obsolete by AI.