Let me tell you something. People are still planning on what should be done on the moon. There is this study called LunA-10 [0] and it is aiming at 2034. Yes, anything on the moon is a decade away and Mars is even further away since Elon isn't working on it.
[0] https://lsic.jhuapl.edu/uploadedDocs/meetings/docs/2441-DIST...
Of course SpaceX can't invest enough in everything at the same time. They are literally investing in the single most important thing for Mars colonization. As Musk points out, fully reusable rocket is a prerequisite, as long as it isn't solved, Mars is a pipedream. So they are focusing primarily on that.
We know for a fact that SpaceX is working other stuff. They have an internal Mars team. They are at least doing study, planning and research. We know for example that Tom Mueller spend 2 full years primary on ISRU. We know they sponsored NASA working group for site selection. We don't know how large the investment is and what they can do, but they are defiantly not doing nothing.
They are also working on better space suits right now. They will be testing next generation suits soon and are already working on the generation beyond that.
They are also working on the Starship as a Human Moon Lander. The work around that will also serve as a bases for the Human Mars Lander.
Its hard to see how much more they could possible do.
> copy of the lunar gateway
What the hell are you talking about? Nothing in SpaceX plan suggest any kind of station on Mars orbit. All SpaceX plan are about direct insertion.
> For some reason people think the ability to stuff 100 people like sardines into Starship matters when in reality there is absolutely nothing waiting for you on Mars.
Everybody knows 100 people number is aspirational for when infrastructure on both sides is fully operational and Starship has gone threw more iterations. Any early mission is planned for far fewer people, that are sent with a lot of equipment. They have made this clear a long time ago.
And as Mars Direct before it showed, you would send infrastructure there before people arrive as well (in the same or the earlier windows).
> Yes, anything on the moon is a decade away and Mars is even further away since Elon isn't working on it.
Except of course that SpaceX building a moon lander complete with complex interior that astronauts can live in. It is the backbone of NASA moon exploration program and that moon lander will serve as a base for exploration and science while it is on the moon. Many of those technologies are highly transferable between the moon and Mars.
There are companies now building moon rovers, and Japan is building a literal an insane mega moon rover. Both of these will likely carry forward to Mars.
We have only just starting to get serious investment in these things in the last couple years. If nothing stops the momentum things can accelerate quite a bit.
I think people will be surprised by the acceleration that will happen in the next decade. But you are right, humans wont be on Mars by 2034. Maybe 2040. It also depends on how you do it, there are some approaches that are much easier and more 'brute frorce' that could be used.
If NASA can every get ride of all the complete nonsense on its budget, and actually invest in more useful stuff, things would go far faster as well. Once Starship manages to demonstrate moon landing politics might shift quite a bit.
It also depends on the politics around the moon and how much continued investment it will get. Sadly NASA has committed to far to many SLS for this nonsense to stop anytime soon. But hopefully at some point this nonsense can be killed.
In other words, it's good to have an analysis; it would also be good to clarify existing questions to the analysis.
I think the chemical plant and the water gathering is something that SpaceX can build. Even at scale.
Sadly Musk is a believer in solar instead of nuclear power. I simply don't believe solar power is reasonable on Mars.
