Anybody that wants to explore alternatives to Microsoft has every reason to do so, the software works about as well or better than running natively on Windows.
Windows in all private laptops, at work we also do macOS, with GNU/Linux on VMs when required.
There is always that one little thing that makes one spend a couple of weekends, last being a NUC whose EUFI couldn't get to read any distribution installed on the internal NVMe, only when used from external devices. Windows, no biggie, works both ways.
I don’t love Windows, but as a launching pad for proprietary software made for it, it gets the job done.
It can't just be an aging demographic.
Young people today use Windows.
Mac has an eerie vibe to it.
Linux sounds too difficult.
And you want to play games.
I must be using it wrong because I don't have any of those things.
This is already desktop stats, a market that isn't really growing. Then figure they're unlikely to be partnered with anyone like Facebook, Tiktok, or Discord, the sites that 90% of users spend most of their time on.
Think of the remaining internet they might have deals with, does that seem representative of users as a whole? Now add in that it's based on hits, with no reason to suspect they're effectively filtering out bots. I don't see the value of such data.
For all but the most advanced of bots, the only such filtering comes from something as simple as a user-agent or other maybe some other header fingerprinting. What percentage of bots even bother to switch from the default of "python-requests/2.25.0" so that they might be detectable as Linux?
My hunch it’s less that people have suddenly discovered Linux and more that desktop sales have been slipping for a long long time so either it’s shifted to Apple or people stick with just phones and tablets. Thus it’s not necessarily that Linux market share has increased because of increasing numbers vs a dedicated minority sticking with a dying market segment.
Anecdotally I've been getting a lot of calls from normies afraid of surveillance and now AI in the OS (both Mac and Windows), asking how to switch to Linux. The ones on Windows also very much hate Windows.
I have a feeling that Microsoft and Apple will not mind this, Linux desktop share getting that high is in fact a comforting, Firefox-sized claim that consumers have other, freer, functional options. It also allows their most disgruntled users to leave rather than become obsessively angry with an OS they've been trapped with.
This, and a lot of people got new desktops/laptops during the pandemic.
I actually got my laptop in late 2019, and it is still running smoothly. Back in thr day a 5 year old laptop would be ancient. Now it still runs fine everything I want on it.
I also think current hardware is lasting for a longer time than before. I remember I used to have a lot more issues with faulty components after a few years of use, etc.
What's being counted as desktop sales?
Because I would suspect that more gamers and hobbyists than ever are simply putting together mid and high-end PCs themselves out of parts, rather than buying prebuilt.
It's been made trivially easy even for the totally inexperienced and uninformed by simply copying popular youtube guides, and I suspect the pandemic chip shortage price hikes greatly increased consciousness about prices even after it muchly recovered.
We're 99% of the way to being able to hand an everyday person a laptop with Linux on it and have them have a decent experience - but they need to be able to go to a website and download a program without screwing around with package managers and wondering if someone's even made a package for their distro. Flatpak and Snap are great, but then you still have to worry about which of those, if any, your computer supports. That's fine for anyone on Hacker News, but it's not fine for my parents or most people who don't take a special interest in tech.
If they do that, 2078 really could be the year of the Linux Desktop. But in the meantime we'll all have been using Steam Decks anyway.
Tho if it does become mainstream I do admit I'll miss feeling special and smart.
1. Packages only offering building from source for the Linux crowd.
2. Packages with soft DRM, offering Windows builds easily and Linux builds referencing the forums.
3. Packages with hard DRM, actively rejecting attempts to run on Linux.
4. "Downloads" built for YUM or APT or whatever.
5. "Downloads" which are basically just scripts designed to shit all over your directory structure and do the real installation later.
6. Downloads only available for a particular distro, and only then by trusting a third-party repo and otherwise doing key-based shenanigans.
...
I bet you could get a decent chunk of the way there with a script turning the "normal" install procedure from that above garbage into a nice desktop icon and an easily deletable binary (with an associated uninstallation script), but people package software differently for Linux than they do for other OS's, and unless you change that part of the culture or manually package a lot more things I don't think you'll solve that particular problem.
Have you looked at
https://www.clearlinux.org/ https://github.com/clearlinux
https://cachyos.org/ https://github.com/CachyOS
https://mxlinux.org/ https://github.com/MX-Linux ?
Would they lack anything? I picked these three specifically because I tested them recently on new hardware I got.
What they have in common is their focus on encapsulating 4. for mere mortals, while not doing 5, or at least not more so than it's common for Windows.
Just you wait.
Reminds me of an old Red Hat advert likely from the late 90s, based on the following quote (I cannot remember who said this.. gandhi???) :-
- First they ignore you - Then they laugh at you - Then they fight you - Then you win
At the end of the advert it said something like "You are here" which shows an aeroplane about to take off... just a matter of time before it leaves the ground. Its kinda symbolic to tell you its just a matter of time.
Of course, things have changed since this advert as the last 10 years Microsoft have been open towards Linux. While they are contributors, I still have doubts of their intentions. Personally, I view Microsofts strategy to control the GNU/Linux ecosystem not by the OS but their software. If they manage to win Linux distributions to use their tools by default (MS SQL Server, .NET, Powershell, etc) - would give them a lot of control!
Of course, linux admins might laugh at that idea... use Powershell? Please! -- But microsoft have some great influence due to their money and advertisement. Things could change drastically in the next 10-15 years.
Imagine big businesses using .NET or SQL Server and start to use Linux over Windows. Big businesses will happily throw support money. Makes you wonder how distributions will alter their views in a few short years.
Despite all I covered, Microsofts decisions on Windows 11 is baffling. At the end of the day, I just want a vanilla install of Windows. If there is a peice of software or feature I want -- I will install it or turn it on myself. Windows is no longer viewed as an Operating system but a full on IoT Service.
It just moves more people over to GNU/Linux. I only have 1 laptop using Windows at home - and I only have it for a job. I leave this job soon and when I do, the first thing I am doing is wiping Windows 11 for Debian.
I have Steam... so as long as I can play my favourite games on Linux (which are not the latest games) I am good! Despite being a Linux user for many years, I am still behind on the gaming side.
Now that windows UX is getting shittier, if there's a linux distro usuable without ever pulling up a terminal, maybe linux has some chance with non technical people.
This is measuring Desktop share, in case you’re curious.
Given that mobile is > 50% Linux (android). And I have to imagine server Linux share similar.
But there is Outlook and some corporate tools - it should be possible to find workarounds but I am not sure of that (how to read my PSTs for instance).
I try every 2 years for the last ... not sure ... probably 30 years to switch, the time is coming for a new test.
My latest fun.
I mean, is it counting distro hopping fresh installs?
or simultanous concurrent running sessions (telemetry hell) ?
