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0 pointsJumpCrisscross1y ago0 comments

> We know the probability that the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing for N days, we can calculate it from historical data

We absolutely do not have long-term climate models with that sort of accuracy.

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We also only have probability distributions, and with all probability distributions, the existence of very bad luck hangs out in the tails.

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0 pointsJumpCrisscross1y ago0 comments

> We know the probability that the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing for N days, we can calculate it from historical data

We absolutely do not have long-term climate models with that sort of accuracy.

We also only have probability distributions, and with all probability distributions, the existence of very bad luck hangs out in the tails.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse