> "AI" ending up not doing that much after all or *
their R&D not paying off*Emphasis added.
You spend money on R&D.
The expectation: You make money.
The AI company reality: The value of your propitiatory models drops to LITERALLY ZERO after they are superseded by a new generation of models, or worse, open inference models.
The risk isn't that the models don't work.
The risk is that it increasingly appears that the 'moat' these companies have is only as good as the amount of money they continue to pour into it. and when the moat is gone, so is the company.
I can also run a business where I create a moat by pouring money into it (remember MoviePass?), eg. literally paying people to use your service; but usually you have to have some kind plan that does not involve magical fairies (eg. AGI) in at the very least your pitch deck, to convince people you have a plan which goes from scale -> mega profit.
