DDHQ was also significantly ahead of the large media, and seemed to be what lead some of the moves in the betting markets. Seems like anyone at DDHQ with the fore-knowledge of the race calling could have easily front ran the betting markets. Same with Nate Silver and his daily releases. In the back of my mind I also wonder about that last minute Iowa pollster who released an outlier poll.

Making these statements after the fact is tricky.

Very tricky.

I would be interested in a blog post explaining it.

The classical fallacy is attributing skill to someone who has successfully predicted 10 coin flips (or market trends) in a row, ignoring the fact that there were many other people making different predictions and there was always going to be one of them who was successful.

I am not sure what that has to do with calling elections. The Associated Press calls who wins, not some random person with $5 to throw away.