This simulator's world is less likely, because it consumes more resources: needs to run thousand nested worlds, so their probabilities are reduced proportionally and further reduced by the virtual machine itself. Also bare metal is more efficient if virtual machine properly interprets instructions and doesn't merely forward them to processor.
Consuming more resources is a matter of perspective, not efficiency, because the scale of total phenomena would be much larger than what is experienced. Always bet against the comprehensiveness of your comprehension.
