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0 pointsnopinsight1y ago0 comments

I think it's a matter of magnitude and semantics. It was quite predictable that the Internet would take off, become ubiquitous, and highly influential.

If superintelligence emerges soon, we may not even know which technologies will emerge and how many will be unleashed in the next 2 decades.

ADDED: Examples of some concrete predictions:

(1980) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book)

(1995) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Ahead_(Gates_book)

Obviously, specifics differ from predictions and plenty of people got it wrong. Many good forecasters got the broad strokes right though.

Which forecasters can even predict most technologies that would be invented after ASI emerges?

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someothherguyy1y ago

Wouldn't base economics dictate that, not ASI? A state can have knowledge of how to do things, how things work, hypothetical implementations, etc. However, if a state lacks the resources, skill, or desire to actually confirm and implement those hypothetical technologies, would they just stagnate? There might be a bottleneck there?

nopinsightOP1y ago

Resources will surely impact near-term possibilities.

The space of possibilities is probably large enough that, given time, ASI can get around most limitations if it has the desire/goal to implement them.

sdenton41y ago

Well, that's wishful thinking at best...

There's a lot of things that we know how to fix, but cannot. It's with thinking through why that is, and whether it's any different for a 'superintelligence.'

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adrianN1y ago

Plenty of people predicted that the Internet was just a fad.

unit1491y ago

"What is behind a dynamic super-intelligent tiling manager implemented in auto-regressive LSTM pre-training models?"

Suggestive pathways, he replied.

jb19911y ago

Hindsight.

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