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0 pointsprmph1y ago0 comments

They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

I remember attending a tech fair decades ago, and at one stand they were vending some database products. When I mentioned that I was studying computer science with a focus on software engineering, they sneered that coding will be much less important in the future since powerful databases will minimize the need for a lot of data wrangling in applications with algorithms.

What actually happened is that the demand for programmers increased, and software ate the world. I suspect something similar will happen the current AI hype.

0 comments

whynotminot1y ago

> They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

This has literally already arrived. Average Joes are writing software using LLMs right now.

arrosenberg1y ago

Source? Which software products are built without engineers?

Jensson1y ago

Personal websites etc, you don't think about them as software products since they weren't built by engineers, but 30 years ago you needed engineers to build those things.

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vouaobrasil1y ago

Well, I think in the 60s we also didn't have LLMs that could actually write complete programs, either.

mirsadm1y ago

No one writes a "complete program" these days. Things just keep evolving forever. I spent way too much time I care to admit dealing with dependencies of libraries which change seemingly on a daily basis these days. These predictions are so far off reality it makes me wonder if the people making them have ever written any code in their life.

vouaobrasil1y ago

That's fair. Well, I've written a lot of code. But anyway, I do want to emphasize the following. I am not making the same prediction as some that say AI can replace a programmer. Instead, I am saying: combination of AI plus programmers will reduce the need for the number or programmers, and hence allow the software industry to exist with far fewer people, with the lucky ones accumulating even more wealth.

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0 pointsprmph1y ago0 comments

They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

What actually happened is that the demand for programmers increased, and software ate the world. I suspect something similar will happen the current AI hype.

0 comments

whynotminot1y ago

> They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

This has literally already arrived. Average Joes are writing software using LLMs right now.

arrosenberg1y ago

Source? Which software products are built without engineers?

Jensson1y ago

Personal websites etc, you don't think about them as software products since they weren't built by engineers, but 30 years ago you needed engineers to build those things.

1 more reply

vouaobrasil1y ago

Well, I think in the 60s we also didn't have LLMs that could actually write complete programs, either.

mirsadm1y ago

vouaobrasil1y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse