I'd hope we see more internal optimizations and improvements to the models. The idea that the big breakthrough being "don't spit out the first thought that pops into your head" seems obvious to everyone outside of the field, but guess what turns out it was a big improvement when the devs decided to add it.
It's obvious to people inside the field too.
Honestly, these things seem to be less obvious to people outside the field. I've heard so many uninformed takes about LLMs not representing real progress towards intelligence (even here on HN of all places; I don't know why I torture myself reading them), that they're just dumb memorizers. No, they are an incredible breakthrough, because extending them with things like internal thoughts will so obviously lead to results such as o3, and far beyond. Maybe a few more people will start to understand the trajectory we're on.
While I agree that the LLM progress as of late is interesting, the rest of your sentiment sounds more like you are in a cult.
As long as your field keep coming with less and less realistic predictions and fail to deliver over and over, eventually even the most gullible will lose faith in you.
Because that's what this all is right now. Faith.
> Maybe a few more people will start to understand the trajectory we're on.
All you are saying is that you believe something will happen in the future.
We can't have a intelligent discussion under those premises.
It's depressing to see so many otherwise smart people fall for their own hype train. You are only helping rich people get more rich by spreading their lies.
I wouldn't be an AI researcher if I didn't have "faith" that AI as a goal is worthwhile and achievable and I can make progress. You think this is irrational?
I am actually working to improve the SoTA in mathematical reasoning. I have documents full of concrete ideas for how to do that. So does everyone else in AI, in their niche. We are in an era of low hanging fruit enabled by ML breakthroughs such as large-scale transformers. I'm not someone who thinks you can simply keep scaling up transformers to solve AI. But consider System 1 and System 2 thinking: System 1 sure looks solved right now.
> As long as your field keep coming with less and less realistic predictions and fail to deliver over and over
I don't think we're commenting on the same article here. For example, FrontierMath was expected to be near impossible for LLMs for years, now here we are 5 weeks later at 25%.
doesnt help that most people are just mimics when talking about stuff thats outside their expertise.
Hell, my cousin a quality-college educated individual, high social/ emotional iq, will go down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole so quickly based on some baseless crap printed on the internet. then he’ll talk about people being satan worshipers.
> i think most people have very little conceptualization of their own thinking/cognitive patterns, at least not enough to sensibly extrapolate it onto ai.
Quite true. If you spend a lot of time reading and thinking about the workings of the mind you lose sight of how alien it is to intuition. While in highschool I first read, in New Scientist, the theory that conscious thought lags behind the underlying subconscious processing in the brain. I was shocked that New Scientist would print something so unbelievable. Yet there seemed to be an element of truth to it so I kept thinking about it and slowly changed my assessment.
It’s very easy to say hey ofc it’s obvious but there is nothing obvious about it because you are anthropomorphizing these models and then using that bias after the fact as a proof of your conjecture.
This isn’t how real progress is achieved.
The state of the art seems very focused on promoting that language that might encode reason is as good as actual reason, rather than asking what a reasoning model might look like.
