Joking aside, better than ever before at any cost is an achievement, it just doesn't exactly scream "breakthrough" to me.
What do you mean by this? I'm assuming you're not speaking about simple absolute differences in value - there have been top players rated over 100 points higher than the average of the rest of the top ten.
o1 is the best code generation model according to Livebench.
So how is this not a breakthrough? It's a genuine movement of the frontier.
I'm a little disappointed by all the upvotes I got for being flat wrong. I guess as long as you're trashing AI you can get away with anything.
Really I was just trying to nitpick the chart parameters.
The problem is that RAM stopped scaling a long time ago now. We're down to the size where a single capacitor's charge is held by a mere 40,000 or so electrons and all we've been doing is making skinnier, longer cells of that size because we can't find reliable ways to boost even weaker signals, but this is a dead end because as the math shows, if the volume is consistent and you are reducing X and Y dimensions, that Z dimension starts to get crazy big really fast. The chemistry issues of burning a hole a little at a time while keeping wall thickness somewhat similar all the way down is a very hard problem.
Another problem is that Moore's law hit a wall when Dennard Scaling failed. When you look at SRAM (it's generally the smallest and most reliable stuff we can make), you see that most recent shrinks can hardly be called shrinks.
Unless we do something very different like compute in storage or have some radical breakthrough in a new technology, I don't know that we will ever get a 2T parameter model inside a phone (I'd love for someone in 10 years to show up and say how wrong I was).
But the data centres running the training for models like this are bringing up new methane power plants at a fast rate at a time when we need to be reducing reliance on O&G.
But let’s assume that the efficiency gains out pace the resource consumption with the help of all the subsidies being thrown in and we achieve AGI.
What’s the benefit? Do we get more fresh water?
Regardless, once we have AGI (and it can scale), I don't think O&G reliance (/ climate change) is going to be something that we need concern ourselves with.
OTOH if these data centers are sufficiently decentralized and run for public benefit, maybe there’s a chance we use them to solve collective action problems.
