The value was highly speculative, an illusion created by PR and sentiment momentum. "Hype value" not real value (unless you're able to realize it and dump those bags on someone else before fundamentals set in). Same thing happening with power companies downstream of the discovery that AI is not going to be a savior of sagging electricity demand. Overdriving the fundamentals is not value destruction, it is "I gambled and lost."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/deepseek-... | https://archive.today/mCemf
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
Do the unit economics make this sustainable?
All of the BigTech companies have enough cash flow from profitable lines of business to make speculative bets.
Due diligence never goes out of style.
Do you mean cash dividends [1]?
Also, the premise is false. Dividend yields have roughly tracked interest rates [2]. (The difference is a dirty component of the equity risk premium [3].)
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/stockcashdividen...
[2] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/table/by-year
[3] https://www.investopedia.com/investing/calculating-equity-ri...
The US can ban all they want, but if the rest of the world starts preferring Chinese social media, Chinese AI, and Chinese websites in general, the US is going to lose one of its crown jewels.
The way the US behaves is a problem and makes a lot of people prefer alternatives just for the sake of avoiding the US, which is why it's important that the US get along with other nations, but--well, about that...
I don't think your statement holds with current behavior.
If DeepSeek becomes popular in America I predict it will be blocked, national firewall style. Will EU do the same?
OMG, it seems tech has been invaded by baaing crypto bros
Their moat is >1B people are already using ChatGPT monthly.
They aren't going to switch unless something is substantially better.
I don't think that's at all likely in the current economic system
They can stop DeepSeek doing various things commercially I guess, but stopping Americans using their ideas is simply impossible and stopping use of their source or weights would be (likely successfully) challenged under the first amendment.
There is no law against simply destroying trillions of dollars of shareholder value.
DeepSeek proved the emperor had no clothes and wiped out a lot of their valuation when investors saw reaching parity to Chtgpt is not really that difficult.
It took them years and years to move forward with the ban ok Tiktok and it still hasn't been banned yet. There is no way they are going to ban some MIT-licensed weights.
>"they destroyed $1T of shareholder value."
The market has largely recovered.
How much taxpayer money has gone to OpenAI and Anthropic? They are the two big sinners in closed AI.
Trump wanted to ban Tiktok before... and then simply chose not to / forgot about it.
Next round congress acted, and Trump delayed it and has said that he is interested in his friends buying it.
Is there really a competitive plan here or is it just fishing for payouts / grifting for allies?
The context is always about competition, but I'm not even sure that's their plan.
That's why it's called a bubble. Pretty sure my great great grandad also overpaid for some tulips.
