Let's say 50% of men want casual sex, 50% want a stable relationship, regardless of their desirability.

Let's say that the 10% most desirable men get 10 "conclusive" matches a month, the others get 1 per month.

Let's say that for men who are in for casual sex stay on the platform for 1 year, those who are in for a long term relationship stay for as long as they need to.

Let's say that 1 in 10 matches can lead to a long term relationship, if desired.

The result is that on average all men who is in for casual sex will stay for 1 year, attractive men who are in for a long term relationship will be there for 1 month and less attractive men who are in for a long term relationship will be there for 10 months.

So with a 50/50 long-term/casual split, and by taking into account how long they stay you will have:

- 51.2% of less attractive men who want casual sex

- 42.7% of less attractive men who want a long term relationship

- 5.7% of attractive men who want casual sex

- 0.4% of attractive men who want a long term relationship

The result is that if an attractive man is still on the platform, there is 92% chance that he is in for casual sex.

Of course, plenty of assumptions here, but the general idea is that attractive men looking for a long term relationship won't stay long, and those who remain are more likely interested in casual sex, whereas it is more balanced for less attractive men.

Of course, it also works for women.

I'd say more likely down the line there's not a huge difference between the popular and unpopular men regarding what they aim for but the men who get a ton of matches and gravitate towards a fixed relationship are more likely to be out of the dating market.