Without a moat, it's hard to argue OpenAI's value is that high.
a) Coca-Cola (~$300B, profitable, stable, stock-listed, well-known addictive brand, accepted business model with steady growth)
b) OpenAI (bleeding cash: $5B lost last year, tech that is not really novel anymore, weird corporate setup, competition that offers similar products).
It's not that easy to support the idea that OpenAI will be the winner.
The OpenAI bet is clearly that they build AGI and become the worlds first $10T company. At this valuation you only need to think it’s P > 0.1 for it to be a reasonable bet.
Coke is not a “swing for the fences” investment.
It's not about how much you earn, it's about how much you're worth.
Or you can gamble it all on a meme stock and maybe 100x your wealth.
Institutional investors are doing both.
Of course microsoft can switch to a better model, but a better model will not easilu build such a such a big subscriber base.
Now openai is powering tons of microsoft tools which are used by tons of people due to office integration.
