No... sigmoid10 was comparing with o1 (not o1-pro), which is accessible for $20/mo, not $200/mo. So, the "Elon factor" in your math is +$20/user/month (2x) for barely any difference in performance (a hard sell), not -$160/user/month, and while we have no clear answer to whether either of them are making a profit at that price, it would be surprising if OpenAI Plus users were not profitable, given the reasonable rate limits OpenAI imposes on o1 access, and the fact that most Plus users probably aren't maxing out their rate limits anyways. o1-pro requires vastly more compute than o1 for each query, and OpenAI was providing effectively unlimited access to o1-pro to Pro users, with users who want tons of queries gravitating to that subscription. The combination of those factors is certainly why Sam Altman claimed they weren't making money on Pro users.

lmarena has also become less and less useful over time for comparing frontier models as all frontier models are able to saturate the performance needed for the kind of casual questions typically asked there. For the harder questions, o1 (not even o1-pro) still appears to be tied for 1st place with several other models... which is yet another indication of just how saturated that benchmark is.

Where do you see that Premium+ is $40 per month?

The official source says "Starts at $22/month or $229/year on web", https://help.x.com/en/using-x/x-premium

This is pretty much what I paid a couple of months ago, as a Canadian.

>Considering that OpenAI subscription is $200 per month

This plan is 75 days old. I didn't know it existed until last week.

OpenAI is starting to try to get a little more realistic revenue in, Grok is acquiring customers.

Given how fast-moving the field is, it's very difficult to confidently state how much inference costs. Perhaps he's under-charging, perhaps OpenAI is over-charging, one may be more optimised than the other, but new models come out and change everything in less time than is normally takes for actual costs to become public knowlege.

Masa Son top ticks a market is somehow still news in 2025.