It could be over, but it won't be over, because he can't be trusted, changes position on important issues every night, and this does not create environment welcoming to investors. Nobody sane will commit to longterm investment. No investment, no growth.

> US imports and exports will decrease over time.

So prices will rise and and government expenditures will fall. Where exactly will that growth come from?

There isnt the slack in the US labor force to rebuild the manufacturing base. Not without significant inflationary pressure. Especially with the hostility towards migaration.

Who will be building, and manning all that newly developed industrial base? You cannot create enough labour in 18 months, it's a very hard fact of reality.

Your labour market has been running at full employment for a while, 4-5% unemployment, there's no leftover hands to help with building up multiple industrial bases. Unless you want massive inflation when all these openings for the rebuilding of USA's industrial base, and need to pay a lot to absorb as much labour as possible to actually happen.

Not even considering in how much risk the investors of this new industrial base will be having to hedge against, who knows when Trump will increase tariffs on their inputs until everything rebuilds internally, financial hedging, oversupplying their warehouses to prepare for shocks, etc. are all quite expensive. Who will pay for it?

One would think it would be a bit beneficial to have some allies in that war...

Oh, the US are gonna help Taiwan? I would've thought you might think of it as unwinnable too.

Oh, that's why Trump is trying to speed up TSMC to build chips on US soil! Now everything makes sense! Surely, TSMC will just do it! And the Chinese will wait for the transition period to finish before they attack the island!

This is absolutely intended to be sarcastic and demonstrate the absurdity that someone who cuts ties with allies would ever do anything to help the next one. And if that next one is threatened with war, it would ever feel comfortable to effectively destroy their only bargaining chip for assured US military help afterwards.

Man, all I know is this year isn't going to end well. For anyone.

There’s close to zero chance the US would win a war with China in the event that it attacks Taiwan. Either china wins quickly, or it takes out all the assets which make it strategic in any case.

Why would the US or the west or China wants to start a war? Over what? They don't have any disputes about land or people. Just some irritations about whatever. But certainly not recipe for war. Even Taiwan is not a reason for the US to start a real war against China. Proxy war by supporting Taiwan sure. But thats it.

They are planning a $4.5 trillion tax cut for the rich.

Not seeing much restraint there.