What do you mean «Neither case would be good»? Not clear.

Example: Gary Marcus wrote six weeks ago, «single-minded obsession with cutting costs is going to cripple science and American universities, with horrific lasting consequences» - that falls into your «...actions being horrible for research», but how does it fit with your statement of a "good case".

I do wish we’d have better sources since there could be a range of jokes about the two shooters during the campaign which could get close to a plausible threat, but the fact that they just shipped him home makes that seem less likely. If you thought he was Carlos the Jackal you’d probably at least hold him long enough to investigate his travel plans and contacts more.