> I literally can't distinguish between reddit commenters and HN commenters.
No need to condescend. I have a fair amount of experience building with and using these tools daily. I'm not just some "reddit idiot."
> So in this fantasy everybody is vibe coding code that lasts for 10+ years and everybody stops learning how to code
I'm extrapolating. Look at what happened in the wake of the industrial revolution. Most people don't know how to fix or create anything today, and instead, rely on fast-and-cheap products or services made by or offered by other people. Hence the panic over China and tariffs. The AI-ification of everything is just another, modern version of a similar thing.
I could absolutely be wrong (and hope I am). But when you track human laziness over time, it leads to deterioration and incompetence. I view this as a gradually than all of a sudden type of problem. One that will be incredibly difficult to dig ourselves out of later.