Searching for black swans (opens in new tab)

There's not a lot there in this essay other than "Deep down, people know that something’s not right. Something feels unstable, like an earthquake that’s about to happen. But no one understands what the real danger is, or what to do about it.”

The article that is linked in this article has the potential to be more substantive: https://www.epsilontheory.com/our-true-enemy-has-yet-to-reve... ...but it's basically an ad for a newsletter, it seems, where you have to pay $20/mo (or $200) to keep reading.

So we're left to wallow in our uneasiness.

It’s easy to go back in time and connect the dots and point out the now obvious black swans. Going forward in time it’s way harder, especially when we have constraints that prevent many to take significant risks. So we see the 2000, 2008 bubbles unfolding but can’t take too many risks.

One of the few tools to predict black swans is Elliott Wave:

https://my.elliottwave.com/products/free/content.aspx?id=966...

> I received my initiation into the flaws of capitalism in September of 2000... a profitable company... was suddenly trading for less than half the value of our cash on hand.

This is no more a flaw of capitalism than finding a $20 NES at a garage sale.

Regular swans would be good about now, but they're getting scarce like anything else.