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0 pointsepistasis10mo ago0 comments

It will likely be more expensive than Vogtle, smaller reactors are just more expensive and they go big because it's more cost effective.

What's slightly different is the financial risk profile. Failing on a 1x 300WM $5B project is slightly easier than a $18B 1GW project.

My personal hypothesis is that nuclear decisions are made almost entirely along financial lines, instead of the safety concerns that dominate most debate about nuclear.

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_aavaa_10mo ago

I think this is actually backwards. The reactors are build big to get economies of scale. Building 4 small ones, each of which will also go over budget, only to produce a more expensive product out of each (electricity) puts your economics backwards.

epistasisOP10mo ago

It's about the amount of capital at risk, not the per kWh unit economics. The risk is of complete failure of build and getting $0.

_aavaa_10mo ago

I don’t know of that many plants that failed to finishing building after construction started.

Unit economics are important. Managing to build doesn’t mean much if you can’t turn a profit.

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0 pointsepistasis10mo ago0 comments

It will likely be more expensive than Vogtle, smaller reactors are just more expensive and they go big because it's more cost effective.

What's slightly different is the financial risk profile. Failing on a 1x 300WM $5B project is slightly easier than a $18B 1GW project.

My personal hypothesis is that nuclear decisions are made almost entirely along financial lines, instead of the safety concerns that dominate most debate about nuclear.

0 comments

_aavaa_10mo ago

epistasisOP10mo ago

It's about the amount of capital at risk, not the per kWh unit economics. The risk is of complete failure of build and getting $0.

_aavaa_10mo ago

I don’t know of that many plants that failed to finishing building after construction started.

Unit economics are important. Managing to build doesn’t mean much if you can’t turn a profit.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse