> I think you are taking "less likely" too literally.

> I am simply pointing out that it is perfectly possible for both percentages to be the same

Come on. If you believe those percentages are the same, what's left of PG's claim?

> , so that whether or not the writing sounds bad gives no useful information about whether it's right or wrong.

He notes, and you stipulate, that if the writing sounds bad, that gives useful information about whether it's right or wrong.

> His intent is much better captured by treating the statements as logical implications, as I and others have been doing.

I have been treating them as logical implications. The difference is that I actually know what the implications are.

How do you think the argument "assuming badly worded papers are no more likely to be wrong than any other papers, it isn't necessarily the case that if badly worded papers are more likely to be wrong than other papers, conclusion X would follow" works? You want to use logic instead of algebra? Every conclusion follows from a contradiction.