LLMs for coding are not even close to imperfect, yet, but the saturation curves are not flattening out; not by a long shot. We are living in a moment and we need to come to terms with it as the work continues to develop; and, we need to adapt and quickly in order to better understand what our place will become as this nascent tech continues its meteoric trajectory toward an entirely new world.
If the future didnt turn out to be revolutionary, you now have done some "unnecessary" work at worst, but might've acquired some skills or value at least. In the case of most well off programmers, i suspect buying assets/investments which can afford them at least a reasonable lifestyle is likely too.
So the default position of being stationary, and assuming the world continues the way it has been, is not such a good idea. One should always assume the worst possible outcome, and plan for that.
Look, we see the forest. We are just not impressed by it.
Having unlimited chaos monkeys at will is not revolutionizing anything.
There's no guarantee a technology will take off, even if it's really, really good. Because we don't decide if that tech takes off - the lawyers do. And they might not care, or they might decide billing more hours is better, actually.
The guiding principle of biglaw.
Attorneys have the bar to protect them from technology they don’t want. They’ve done it many times before, and they’ll do it again. They are starting to entertain LLMs, but not in a way that would affect their billable hours.
History majors everywhere are weeping.
When I graduated high school, I had never been or knew anyone who had ever been on the internet at all. The internet was this vague "information superhighway" that I didn't know really what to make of.
If you are of a certain age though you would think a pointless update to react was all the change ever coming.
That time is over and we are back to reality.
Or maybe they just know the nitty-gritty inherent limitations of technology better than you.
(inb4: "LLMs can't have limitations! Wait a few years and they will solve literally every possible problem!")
If you always say that every new fad is just hype, then you'll even be right 99.9% of the time. But if you want to be more valuable than a rock (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-alwa...), then you need to dig into the object-level facts and form an opinion.
In my opinion, AI has a much higher likelihood of changing everything very quickly than crypto or similar technologies ever did.
I am not a software engineer but I just can't imagine my job is not automated in 10 years or less.
10 years is about the time between King – Man + Woman = Queen and now.
I think what is being highly underestimated is the false sense of security people feel because the jobs they interface with are also not automated, yet.
It is not hard to picture the network of automation that once one role is automated, connected roles to that role become easier to automate. So on and so on while the models keep getting stronger at the same time.
I expect we will have a recession at some point and the jobs lost are gone forever.
Software isn't like this. No one cares why you wrote the code in your PR. They only care about whether it's right.
This is why LLMs could be useful in one industry and a lot less useful in another.
