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0 pointsdangus10mo ago0 comments

> it took Microsoft 22 years to reach $10 billion in revenue

You need to adjust this figure for inflation. Microsoft became huge decades ago when money was worth more.

It’s not being on the Internet that’s giving me AI fatigue. My employer is forcing me to use it. It’s being used at the drive-thru window even. “Touch grass” isn’t a valid argument here.

This idea that AI will improve after the AI companies’ inevitable exits is one that isn’t backed by history. I’d like to have one exited unicorn company named that has a better value and/or lower cost now than its pre-exit state. YouTube? Netflix? Facebook? Uber? MongoDB? Atlassian? Slack?

It is legitimately hard to find a tech company that is a more desirable company to patronize post-exit than pre-exit.

We are so obviously in the customer acquisition phase of AI…people in this thread are talking about spending hundreds per month on AI services and I think all of those will double in price soon after large private company players like OpenAI go public or get acquired. It happened with Netflix, it happened with YouTube (more ads, YouTube Premium), it happened with Uber, the list goes on and on.

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alwillis10mo ago

> We are so obviously in the customer acquisition phase of AI…people in this thread are talking about spending hundreds per month on AI services and I think all of those will double in price soon after large private company players like OpenAI go public or get acquired.

I guess it remains to be seen, but the cost for tokens is only going to decrease, not increase. Also, remember that OpenAI and Anthropic get a lot of revenue from large companies licensing and otherwise paying to use these models.

dangusOP10mo ago

But OpenAI and Anthropic are not profitable. They are getting lots of revenue but we don’t even know if that revenue is bringing them closer to profitability. For all we know they are selling $2 bills for $1.

“It’ll only get cheaper” until it doesn’t.

Moore’s law is already dead in the context of the underlying hardware manufacturing technology that powers AI. Once neural processor design reaches an end state we can’t count on any significant lithography breakthroughs powering a reduction in cost.

For example, graphics cards aren’t getting cheaper, and if they are, certainly not very quickly. A lot of consumer electronics categories key to prior tech booms like laptops and workstations aren’t getting cheaper or aren’t getting cheaper/faster very quickly.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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alwillis10mo ago

dangusOP10mo ago

“It’ll only get cheaper” until it doesn’t.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse