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0 pointssgt1018mo ago0 comments

Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence.

The fact that the pilots denied that they had shut the switch (one asking the other why they had done so and the other denying it), and that they restarted the engines should be taken into account. Ok, murder suicide is definitely on the table but I would want to see some other reasons for believing that this is so.

0 comments

jon_smark8mo ago

Sorry to nitpick, but for a good Bayesian, absence if evidence is evidence of absence. If you want the aphorism to be technically correct, you should say "absence of proof is not proof of absence".

A note on the terminology: "evidence" is a piece of data that suggests a conclusion, while not being conclusive by itself. Whereas "proof" is a piece of data that is conclusive by itself.

sgt101OP8mo ago

For a long time my wife refused to accept that Tree Kangaroos existed and insisted that I'd made them up. When the internet came along she looked them up and treated me strangely for a while.

What things that you have never seen do you not believe in?

YeGoblynQueenne8mo ago

(not the OP) Giant isopods. They're not real. I know there are pictures of what are supposed to be giant isopods but they are not real animals, instead they're clearly fake models of made-up animals.

Look at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_isopod#/media/File:Bathy...

Clearly some kind of plastic model. I mean its eyes are gleaming menacingly. Or look at this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_isopod#/media/File:Giant...

Seriously, wikipedia? Seriously? That's clearly a hoax.

Giant isopods are. not. real.

YeGoblynQueenne8mo ago

A proof is a "piece of data"? Oh boy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_proof

tl;dr: not a piece of data.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

jon_smark8mo ago

Sorry to nitpick, but for a good Bayesian, absence if evidence is evidence of absence. If you want the aphorism to be technically correct, you should say "absence of proof is not proof of absence".

A note on the terminology: "evidence" is a piece of data that suggests a conclusion, while not being conclusive by itself. Whereas "proof" is a piece of data that is conclusive by itself.

sgt101OP8mo ago

For a long time my wife refused to accept that Tree Kangaroos existed and insisted that I'd made them up. When the internet came along she looked them up and treated me strangely for a while.

What things that you have never seen do you not believe in?

YeGoblynQueenne8mo ago

(not the OP) Giant isopods. They're not real. I know there are pictures of what are supposed to be giant isopods but they are not real animals, instead they're clearly fake models of made-up animals.

Look at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_isopod#/media/File:Bathy...

Clearly some kind of plastic model. I mean its eyes are gleaming menacingly. Or look at this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_isopod#/media/File:Giant...

Seriously, wikipedia? Seriously? That's clearly a hoax.

Giant isopods are. not. real.

YeGoblynQueenne8mo ago

A proof is a "piece of data"? Oh boy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_proof

tl;dr: not a piece of data.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse