Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?
No, I don't remember it like that. Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it?
You don't. I love the argument ad absurdum more than most but you've taken it a teensy bit too far.
LLM are more useful than Segway, but it can still be overhyped because the hype is so much larger. So its comparable, as you say LLM is so much more hyped doesn't mean it can't be overhyped.
2. Segways were just ahead of their time: portable lithium-ion powered urban personal transportation is getting pretty big now.
The Segway always had a high barrier to entry. Currently for ChatGPT you don't even need an account, and everyone already has a Google account.
It is even cheaper to serve an LLM answer than call a web search API!
Zero chance all the users evaporate unless something much better comes along, or the tech is banned, etc...
I haven't seen that at all. I've seen a whole lot of top-down AI usage mandates, and every time what sounds like a sensible positive take comes along, it turns out to have been written by someone who works for an AI company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK362RLHXGY
Hey, it still beats what you go through at the airports.
I got to try one once. It was very underwhelming...
I chat with the guy who works nights at my local convenience store about our $1000-2000 e-scooters. We both use them more than we use our cars.
LLMs have hundreds of millions of users. I just can't stress how insane this was. This wasn't built on the back of Facebook or Instagram's distribution like Threads. The internet consumer has never so readily embraced something so fast.
Calling LLMs "hype" is an example of cope, judging facts based on what is hoped to be true even in the face of overwhelming evidence or even self-evident imminence to the contrary.
I know people calling "hype" are motivated by something. Maybe it is a desire to contain the inevitable harm of any huge rollout or to slow down the disruption. Maybe it's simply the egotistical instinct to be contrarian and harvest karma while we can still feign to be debating shadows on the wall. I just want to be up front. It's not hype. Few people calling "hype" can believe that this is hype and anyone who does believes it simply isn't credible. That won't stop people from jockeying to protect their interests, hoping that some intersubjective truth we manufacture together will work in their favor, but my lord is the "hype" bandwagon being dishonest these days.
You had me until you basically said, "and for my next trick, I am going to make up stories".
Projecting is what happens when someone doesn't understand some other people, and from that somehow concludes that they do understand those other people, and feels the need to tell everyone what they now "know" about those people, that even those people don't know about themselves.
Stopping at "I don't understand those people." is always a solid move. Alternately, consciously recognizing "I don't understand those people", followed up with "so I am going to ask them to explain their point of view", is a pretty good move too.
I think the core issue is separating the perception of value versus actual value. There have been a couple of studies to this effect, pointing to a misalignment towards overestimating value and productivity boosts.
One reason this happens imo, is because we sequester a good portion of the cognitive load of our thinking to the latter parts of the process so when we are evaluating the solution we are primed to think we have saved time when the solution is sufficiently correct, or if we have to edit or reposition it by re-rolling, we don't account for the time spent because we may feel we didn't do anything.
I feel like this type of discussion is effectively a top topic every day. To me, the hype is not in the utility it does have but in its future utility. The hype is based on the premise that these tools and their next iteration can and will make all knowledge-based work obsolete, but crucially, will yield value in areas of real need; cancer, aging, farming, climate, energy and etc.
If these tools stop short of those outcomes, then the investment all of SV has committed to it at this point will have been over invested and
Maybe it's more like Pogs.
I can totally go about my life pretending Segway doesn't exist, but I just can't do that with ChatGPT, hence why the author felt compelled to write the post in the first place. They're not writing about Segway, after all.
Counterpoint: That's how I feel about ebikes and escooters right now.
Over the weekend, I needed to go to my parent's place for brunch. I put on my motorcycle gear, grabbed my motorcycle keys, went to my garage, and as I was about to pull out my BMW motorcycle (MSRP ~$17k), looked at my Ariel ebike (MSRP ~$2k) and decided to ride it instead. For short trips they're a game changing mode of transport.
wet firecracker won’t kill you
So? The blog notes that if something is inevitable, then the people arguing against it are lunatics, and so if you can frame something as inevitable then you win the rhetorical upper-hand. It doesn't -- however -- in any way attempt to make the argument that LLMs are _not_ inevitable. This is a subtle straw man: the blog criticizes the rhetorical technique of inevitabilism rather than engaging directly with whether LLMs are genuinely inevitable or not. Pointing out that inevitability can be rhetorically abused doesn't itself prove that LLMs aren't inevitable.
