I know I'm nitpicking, but sure — nothing is guaranteed, but it's also not like everything is the same risk.

From my limited understanding the government hasn't been responsibly saving and investing social security withholdings your whole life in a special account for you that invests in index funds and is sitting there for you when you retire.

Instead it works something kinda like a ponzi scheme meets an insurance company. They keep a float of cash that's enough to pay out, and then put the money to use for all sorts of government costs because they won't need it for 30 years. Which works fine until the 30 years is up and they don't have it…

Probably won't happen I assume, they'd probably just print money to pay it back in an inflationary move but regardless — it's a risk that is not the same as every other risk.