As long as VISA and MasterCard are only targetting adult content they are pretty much free to do whatever they want because no politician is going to go out and defend pornography.
Steam has a large and dedicated user base. They are one of the companies that has access to enough users to conceivably build their own payment processor with enough volume to be profitable from the start.
Industry giants are often toppled by companies who started out in some niche the giant is ignoring/avoiding.
Valve also have an extremely loyal customer base. If they have to open an account at the Bank of Gaben to get their fix of smutty games, they just might.
I'm quite sure it would cause a massive amount of people to start paying using bank transfer.
The Proton / Steam deck play was a decade long strategic play that has clearly paid dividends and made Steam much less dependent on Microsoft. It would not be surprising to me if Valve in 10 years time has positioned itself to be much more independent of Visa and Mastercard than it is today.
If I were Steam, I would not call that bluff.
I think Visa/MC very much would dare.
Valve isn't ready for this battle ... yet.
I imagine they are girding for it, though. It simply wasn't a feasible battle until probably this year. FedNow and other things are just coming online. I suspect that Valve will begin incentivizing using that system rather than Visa/MC extremely strongly.
It's more like huge companies have a lot of internal politics, so public dramas are good occasion to fire a few managers here and there by their opponents.