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0 pointsbaq8mo ago0 comments

This is already happening if you know where to look and it isn’t esoteric data. The share of retail in treasury buyers has been increasing for years. If the administration doesn’t reduce spending (it won’t since it can’t) yields will blow out, we had a taste of this a couple times in the past years. Watch 5.5% on the 10. Expect YCC. Possibly buy gold if you think of buying treasuries…

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ptero8mo ago

> This is already happening

Yes. When I said 5-10 years it wasn't to say that the effects would start then. That was my WAG at the time when normal, mild methods like localized YCC stop working and we should expect significant system-level problems.

For investments, I think now "buying index" will stop working well and buying chosen quality, profitable companies will work much better. My 2c.

baqOP8mo ago

> For investments, I think now "buying index" will stop working well and buying chosen quality, profitable companies will work much better. My 2c.

Eh, that's what the index should be comprised of anyway, with some lags.

Or, to put it differently, nothing new: it was always much better, if you knew which companies will exceed expectations. After they do so consistently, they get included in the index eventually.

omnee8mo ago

Gold was also inversely correlated to long term US interest rates, which no longer holds true. So, nations and large institutions already hold the opinion that inflation will be higher (>2%) for longer in the future. Maybe the target should be moved to ~3%, which is defacto the case.

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