I doubt you’ll find any public data on this because internal hiring success data is rarely ever released and MOOCs are already a rare resume item.

In my experience with hiring, though, it tracks. The number of times I’ve seen a MOOC on a resume is already a small number. Of those, it was usually 1-3 courses, not an entire program. Taking a couple courses does not compare to the repetition and layered learning of an entire program.

If someone showed up with an entire MOOC learning program and certificate of completion that I could verify then I would look into it. In my experience you don’t see this. You see people listing a couple MOOC courses right next to their other certifications. When you ask them questions about the topic they usually don’t remember much because it was a one-time course they took.

I have been on the hiring side, too. And the difference between a good enough college and an elite college is the density of really good students.

If you have a fraction:

    really good students
    --------------------
     all students in CS

Then this number tends to be much higher in elite colleges than good enough colleges.

This is my personal experience.

(Past) company did hire from non-elite colleges in case-by-case basis, but one time we wanted 4-5 freshers, we did go to the elite college.

All students of elite colleges aren't better than all students of good enough colleges, but the fraction is what is different.

In a a typical CS dept of 50 students, you can find 40-45 really good ones in elite colleges versus 3-8 in good-enough colleges.