So we're only about a year since the last big breakthrough.
I think we got a second big breakthrough with Google's results on the IMO problems.
For this reason I think we're very far from hitting a wall. Maybe 'LLM parameter scaling is hitting a wall'. That might be true.
Yes, it was breakthrough but saturated quickly. Wait for next breakthrough. If they can build adapting weights in llm we can talk different things but test time scaling coming to end with increasing hallucination rate. No sign for AGI.
I don't believe your assessment though. IMO is hard, and Google have said that they use search and some way of combining different reasoning traces, so while I haven't read that paper yet, and of course, it may support your view, but I just don't believe it.
We are not close to solving IMO with publicly known methods.
Of course, people regarded things like GSM8k with trained reasoning traces as reasoning too, but it's pretty obviously not quite the same thing.
I think the actual effect of releasing more models every month has been to confuse people that progress is actually happening. Despite claims of exponentially improved performance and the ability to replace PhDs, doctors, and lawyers, it still routinely can't be trusted the same as the original ChatGPT, despite years of effort.
to the point on hallucination - that's just the nature of LLMs (and humans to some extent). without new architectures or fact checking world models in place i don't think that problem will be solved anytime soon. but it seems gpt-5 main selling point is they somehow reduced the hallucination rate by a lot + search helps with grounding.
A whole 8 months ago.
The crypto level hype claims are all bs and we all knew that but i do use an llm more than google now which is the there there so to speak.
This does feel like a flatlining of hype tho which is great because idk if i could take the ai hype train for much longer.
It is easier to get from 0% accurate to 99% accurate, than it is to get from 99% accurate to 99.9% accurate.
This is like the classic 9s problem in SRE. Each nine is exponentially more difficult.
How easy do we really think it will be for an LLM to get 100% accurate at physics, when we don't even know what 100% right is, and it's theoretically possible it's not even physically possible?
