> Unless someone figures how to make these models a million(?) times more efficient or feed them a million times more energy I don’t see how AGI would even be a twinkle in the eye of the LLM strategies we have now.
A fair argument. So what is left? At the risk of sounding snarky, "new" strategies. Hype is annoying, yes, but I wouldn't bet against mathematics, physics, and engineering getting to silicon-based AGI, assuming a sufficiently supportive environment. I don't currently see any physics-based blockers; the laws of the universe permit AGI and more, I think. The human brain is powerful demonstration of what is possible.
Factoring in business, economics, culture makes forecasting much harder. Nevertheless, the incentives are there. As long as there is hope, some people will keep trying.
