Has dystopian sci-fi been wrong all along?

Interesting. My perception is pretty much the opposite of yours, that such fiction has been mostly on point so far. The "elites" (and particularly the tech "elites") have built their own world that is pretty much completely disconnected from ours in a day-to-day sense. They live in compounds, have what are basically private armies to increase that separation, and view people as resources to be exploited. They could not be more separate from normal people without actually leaving the planet.

Remember that almost everything in sci-fi is allegory. You can effectively leave the Earth without ever physically leaving the Earth.

I think SpaceX is cool af but end of the day rocket tech isn’t going to get us off-world unless it becomes our “cathedral” tier project. And we all know that by the time those were completed the world had largely moved on, both spiritually and engineering-wise. We also moved on from the “elites” of that time who are now props (kings and queens) or they invest into some copy paste SaaS that they sell to their friend.

I’d rather the military keep investing into insane special projects that really push the boundaries of what’s possible. Across intelligence, science R&D, and social/behavioral tendencies.

If we are gonna discuss sci fi and dystopias or utopias… My personal utopia would be the USA winning earth first, getting 99% of the world population to relax or FAFO asap so we can get to the off world stage and conquer aliens.

I’d consider myself an America techno militarist optimist.

I think about 50 years ago there began a slow shift from warnings of overt totalitarianism (1984, Brave New World, Fahrenheit 451) to threats of social fragmentation, economic inequality, corporate surveillance and other indirect forms of control, the resulting loss of individualism and, of course, ecological collapse. These issues seem to remain relevant for the foreseeable future.

I also believe that no one really understands how the world works, not even the elites. Incidentally, this is the most powerful argument for democracy that I know of.

Pull the wool back a little, peek outside, and see how the grifter techbros are still pushing for that bleak dystopia where they will feel validated by the masses who haven't hoarded billions in wealth.

Elites are stupid as fuck, but it makes sense why they end up that way. Money and power allow for immunity from consquence and the creation of a bubble of delusion which fosters a friends circle of yes men that prevents any opportunities for self reflection or criticism.

Maybe read the three classics dystopian sci-fi:

  The Earth Abides
  Day of the Triffids
  On the Beach

  Anything by Phillip K. Dick
  Most things by Robert Heinlein

  William Gibson
  John Scalzi