But they don’t use real temperatures from real systems. They just make up a different set of temperatures for each CPU that they sell, so that the TDP comes out to the number that they want. The formula doesn’t even mean anything, in real physical terms.

I agree that predicting power usage is far more difficult than it should be. The real power usage of the CPU is dependent on the temperature too, since the colder you can make the CPU the more power it will voluntarily use (it just raises the clock multiplier until it measures the temperature of the CPU rising without leveling off). And as you said there are a bunch of other factors as well.