Germany's far-right AfD suffers series of candidate deaths ahead of local vote (opens in new tab)

(bbc.com)

9 pointsthe-dude6mo ago8 comments

8 comments

The first confounding factor that occurs to me: were they especially old?

Politicians tend to be on the elderly side. Even more so for conservative politicians, I think, but I don't know much about AfD.

If so, perhaps it's not quite as unlikely as the economist (quoted in TFA) thinks. But that's just speculation.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

The article reads 6 deaths, today another died, so the tally is now 7.

I thought HN might be a good place to discuss the odds of this.

duxup6mo ago

This is one of those cases where how you frame the math either makes it seem more unlikely or just how the RNG of life played out.

>North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.

Personally I'm very much not a fan of knowing no facts about the deaths and jumping to conspiracy theories.

This is one of those litmus tests to see how conspiracy theory prone you are I think.

pavel_lishin6mo ago

> the four initial deaths were either from natural causes or the cause was not being divulged for reasons of family privacy

Isn't the latter case usually reserved for suicides or drug overdoses, or other deaths that might be considered embarassing?

duxup6mo ago

At least in my area not divulging it can be because not all family just hasn't been notified, for every situation.

Germany of course is different so who knows.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

Suicides are sometimes considered suspicious.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

For now, all deaths are from AfD, so wouldn't it be more fair to only consider AfD candidates?

yorwba6mo ago

From the article:

> The state's interior ministry has pointed out that candidates from other parties, including the Greens and Social Democrats, have also died.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

8 comments

jfengel6mo ago

The first confounding factor that occurs to me: were they especially old?

Politicians tend to be on the elderly side. Even more so for conservative politicians, I think, but I don't know much about AfD.

If so, perhaps it's not quite as unlikely as the economist (quoted in TFA) thinks. But that's just speculation.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

The article reads 6 deaths, today another died, so the tally is now 7.

I thought HN might be a good place to discuss the odds of this.

duxup6mo ago

This is one of those cases where how you frame the math either makes it seem more unlikely or just how the RNG of life played out.

>North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.

Personally I'm very much not a fan of knowing no facts about the deaths and jumping to conspiracy theories.

This is one of those litmus tests to see how conspiracy theory prone you are I think.

pavel_lishin6mo ago

> the four initial deaths were either from natural causes or the cause was not being divulged for reasons of family privacy

Isn't the latter case usually reserved for suicides or drug overdoses, or other deaths that might be considered embarassing?

duxup6mo ago

At least in my area not divulging it can be because not all family just hasn't been notified, for every situation.

Germany of course is different so who knows.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

Suicides are sometimes considered suspicious.

the-dudeOP6mo ago

For now, all deaths are from AfD, so wouldn't it be more fair to only consider AfD candidates?

yorwba6mo ago

From the article:

> The state's interior ministry has pointed out that candidates from other parties, including the Greens and Social Democrats, have also died.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse