If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad).

If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK.

In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups.

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The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades).

Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact.

My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.

Outside of 10 universities (Stanford, MIT, CMU, Cal, UIUC, GT, UMich, UCLA, UW, UT Austin), there isn't much of a point to run campus hiring events or building a pipeline unless alumni help build that pipeline (B10s not mentioned are a great example of that) or it's a local school (SJSU for the Bay, NCSU for RTP).

For cybersecurity and DevSecOps at least, it's legitimately difficult to justify campus hiring in the US when you can hire or fund an IDF, PMO, or Police cybersecurity alum who went to TAU or BGU for around 70-100% of what you would pay an American new grad.

An experienced hire in the US ends up becoming much more expensive and still has a skill gap compared to an equally mid-career hire in Israel.

And if I want to cut costs, it's easy to poach from the various OS development teams in CEE and India, because much of the IBM-Red Hat, IBM AIX, Oracle Linux, and MS Windows Kernel orgs were offshored decades ago.

If I can hire a new grad from IITB (India) or TAU (Israel) for a base salary between $30,000 (India) to $90,000 (Israel) it's much cheaper than hiring the handful of new grads in the US with a similar skillset for $120k-140k base, especially when HFTs like Citadel or HRT are targeting the same candidates at the same unis for their SWE roles.

> and computer engineering programs

CE/ECE programs do require those classes, but the total number of grads from these programs is around 19k [0] for all degree levels (from BS to PhD), and most of the Masters and Doctorate candidates are themselves in the OPT-to-H1B pipeline.

[0] - https://datausa.io/profile/cip/computer-engineering