* https://watchcharts.ca/watches/price_index
* https://watchcharts.ca/watches/brand_index/rolex
* https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-e...
>> The value of the US dollar is simply going down.
I wonder what could be causing nervousness in the USD regime…
So it's part of the story, money losing value in the real economy. That's been happening since moving off the gold standard at roughly similar rates.
There's something that happened during ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies that completely divorced the value of money in the real economy from the value of assets & future cash flows, and even when interest rates became positive again, the trend appears to have continued.
Perhaps all investors just believe ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies are coming back, maybe to even more negative real rates than ever before.
How do you measure this? What is this claim founded in?
You could indeed say that inflation should be defined by the asset prices. This would couple fiat and asset prices definatorically.
I’m not sure I follow. The USD is just a medium of exchange. 100% of the dollars commands 100% of the wealth of the economy. If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the underlying prices would go up and the value of individual dollars would go down.
I'm assuming you are referring to CPI, but that is just a single measure of inflation and serves a very specific purpose. One could argue that "real" inflation in fact is the US dollar's value relative to gold or other similar assets.
But really none of it is as objective as it tries to pretend to be.
So then the question is - how long can this continue before something snaps
This, in itself, doesn't mean anything profound. There's nothing to "snap" if the expectation of stable, modest inflation is baked into the markets. Fiat currencies usually implode only when something else undermines the confidence in the issuing government.
1) flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens
2) central banks increasing gold holdings
3) purchases by Chinese investors as they have few places to invest their money
4) concern around debt levels deficits and democratic process ability to fix this
5) concerns around central bank independence, and hence inflation targeting, being undermined for political motivations
I have personally bought a lot of gold after having been a long term US equities investor because of its risk-off and zero duration nature. In a world of stock bubbles, high valuations, and general economic uncertainty, leaning risk-off has been where I currently feel comfortable. In a world of inflation being in zero duration is a sensible place to be.
I keep seeing this but then I also keep seeing the opposite: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-r...
[1] https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/011...
- The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view.
- That means it represents good investment opportunity as long as the fundamentals of those companies are not affected too much (e.g. AI companies not directly affected by workers' raid, or pay tarrifs). Nothing is contradictory here.
Actually we’ve shifted into authoritarianism and confidence has only worsened.
It was a presidential election year and consumers were getting squeezed hard by rising energy prices. Russia invaded Afghanistan, Carter suspended participation in the Olympics, and there was a general feeling of concern.
Using Wolfram Alpha to compute gold's price in 1979 relative to 2025, "850.00 1979 dollars in 2025", the result is $3,663.84
Gold closed today at $3,858.60.
Just like 1979, 2025 has a long list of international concerns making investors nervous.
Not that one should put all of one’s portfolio into gold. That would be pretty insane. But a certain fixed allocation within a balanced portfolio? I think that makes sense.
The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next.
https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
(not to act like im above it all, i still have my gold-plated pokemon jigglypuff trading card from burger king in 1999 and i often use golden paint on model kits).
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? How come his Bitcoin holdings - now worth more than $100 billion dollars - have remained untouched since 2010? How can any one human resist that kind of temptation? I would be digging landfill sites if I lost my wallet worth $100 billion. The launch of Bitcoin also coincided with the 2008 financial crisis. The first block had the text: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks" embedded, etc.
None of the altcoins have this level of myths and legend. You need this kind of supernatural story to start a new fiat, digital gold, religion, and whatever collective fiction you can think of.
It s superior to currency because while (for example) the US dollar will always have value as long as you pay taxes with it, there is not a limited supply
It is superior to bartering because while (for example) a chicken has value due to its utility as food, it naturally disappears (because you ate it or it died).
Gold and other precious metals sort of sit in the middle ground as the "next best thing" to almost everything that humans want. So it remains a useful means of preserving and communicating value.
The true value of gold is quite stable over time (since new gold is mined at a slow rate). Fiat currencies are constantly being debased. Hard assets fluctuate up and down relative to gold.
In contrast, Trump has been making noises about wanting to replace Powell as chair of the Fed, because Powell won't dance to Trump's tune. I do not want a world where Trump can determine (even if indirectly) the value of the dollar, or the interest rate, or anything in that vicinity.
So I trust the dollar a lot less than I did six months ago. In contrast, gold doesn't care what Trump's policy is.
https://www.space.com/astronomy/earth/earths-next-mini-moon-...
All the Germans who had great gold reserves in 1930 still ended up fighting in WW2. Hell, many of them were Jewish and had that gold stolen and sent to the Swiss for safekeeping by the Nazi state. The danger to their society was not hyperinflation, it was a hostile government sending them to die for stupid reasons, and literally like a hundred people, or fewer, choosing out of utter stupidity and an insane ideology based purely on ignorance, forcing everyone into a bad situation.
There is no safety, of any kind, under authoritarianism. Gold will not save you.
That useful property was well known (and notably, other currencies such as shells and precious stones lacked this). In addition as others have said, gold was both scarce and had a low melting point. However, other metals had these properties too, and sure enough, some cultures did anchor their currencies on metals other than gold.
We are not "just instinctively attracted to shiny metals". FHN.
It took 8 years for gold to recover from circa 2012 drop. 8 years is twice as long as S&P 500 took to recover from 2008 financial crisis. More importantly, see the 1980 high. It took 26 years to get back to the same point. Anyone considering investment should adjust their expectations accordingly.
As a sibling comments outlines, gold is actually quite volatile and risky versus returns, and your returns will very much depend on when you bought it.
> an ounce of gold in Roman times bought a nice suit, and today, an ounce of gold buys a nice suit.
Consequently it's the standard safe store of value investors flee to when the world is in upheaval, a role it has played since well before Roman times. Its price being high is a standard indicator of investors fearing miserable times ahead. See, for example, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp or https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flighttoquality.asp.
If it appears to you that "gold is pretty much always appreciating", that's a function of your perspective, similar to the phenomenon where, sometimes, when you're standing on railroad tracks, a faraway train looks bigger and bigger and bigger if you just stand there and watch. In this case what is happening is that the value of whatever you're using to measure the gold's value, probably dollars, is depreciating.
Gold's value is pretty volatile in the short term, though, so in fact most of the time gold is not at an all-time high, even measured in dollars. If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment#/media/F..., for example, you'll see that gold didn't reach its high of 02011 again for about 9 years, and didn't reach its high of 01980 again for 27 years, until the subprime mortgage crisis in 02007. To me it looks like the recent periods that gold has reached a nominal all-time price are roughly 01968–01975, 01979–01980, 02008–02011, the first half of 02020 when nobody knew what was going to happen with covid, and since Trump got elected. 13 out of the last 60 or so years.
The following plot on that page shows what I mean about inflation; adjusted for the BLS CPI, gold hadn't exceeded its 01980 peak until the last few months, not even in the subprime mortgage crisis.
kmeisthax's shadowbanned graph of oil barrels per gold ounce is also pretty thought-provoking: stable within the 10–35 range from 01946 until 02023, with the stunning exception of 02020 ("The peak in 2020 was driven by COVID-19, which boosted gold prices as a safe haven while oil demand and prices plummeted due to global lockdowns.") https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-gold-t...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bon...
It is about certain regimes nearing their end and folks converting assets into something fungible they can use and enjoy while exiled in Geneva, Dubai, Phnom Penh, etc.
As just one example (of many) of why its not about the USD - most global debt is dollar denominated and settled in dollars. Even if they don't reside or transact in the US, most large financial transactions settle (or are hedged) in USD. Again, just one example.
Also, understand export economies like China cannot avoid dollar settlement for goods exported to the US. They can settle in USD and covert to another asset, but only as a secondary step.
I could go on about this, but Carnegie Endowment Prof Michael Pettis explains this and more much better than I can.
https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GLD
(Not quite the same due to the compounding 0.40%/year expense ratio of the ETF, but probably close enough for this conversation.)
Considering most stocks have been equally increasing/at ATH, I’m not sure that’s the reason.
[0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-reserve-currencie...
They all start out with "if the shit comes down, gold will --" and I cut them off by saying "-- still have almost zero intrinsic value."
Can't eat it. Can't burn it. Can't really make shelter or a weapon out of it. Useful for tiny microcircuits, but that's not something the preppers will be doing in Montanam
"Well, it'll always be valuable, because people think --"
Aha, dudebro, now you're in the realm of "perceieved value." Whole different game in the end times...
As always, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_certificate_(United_State...
Seems like anyone who buys or sells gold at any other price is questioning it.
