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0 pointsadventured5mo ago0 comments

There is an exceptionally obvious solution for OpenAI & ChatGPT: ads.

In fact it's an unavoidable solution. There is no future for OpenAI that doesn't involve a gigantic, highly lucrative ad network attached to ChatGPT.

One of the dumbest things in tech at present is OpenAI not having already deployed this. It's an attitude they can't actually afford to maintain much longer.

Ads are a hyper margin product that are very well understood at this juncture, with numerous very large ad platforms. Meta has a soon to be $200 billion per year ad system. There's no reason ChatGPT can't be a $20+ billion per year ad system (and likely far beyond that).

Their path to profitability is very straight-forward. It's practically turn-key. They would have to be the biggest fools in tech history to not flip that switch, thinking they can just fund-raise their way magically indefinitely. The AI spending bubble will explode in 2026-2027, sharply curtailing the party; it'd be better for OpenAI if they quickly get ahead of that (their valuation will not hold up in a negative environment).

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thewebguyd5mo ago

> They would have to be the biggest fools in tech history to not flip that switch

As much as I don't want ads infiltrating this, it's inevitable and I agree. OpenAI could seriously put a dent into Google's ad monopoly here, Altman would be an absolute idiot to not take advantage of their position and do it.

If they don't, Google certainly will, as will Meta, and Microsoft.

I wonder if their plan for the weird Sora 2 social network thing is ads.

Investors are going to want to see some returns..eventually. They can't rely on daddy Microsoft forever either, now with MS exploring Claude for Copilot they seem to have soured a bit on OpenAI.

dreamcompiler5mo ago

Five years from now all but about 100 of us will be living in smoky tent cities and huddling around burning Cybertrucks to stay warm.

But there will still be thousands of screens everywhere running nonstop ads for things that will never sell because nobody has a job or any money.

jhallenworld5mo ago

Google didn't have inline ads until 2010, but they did have separate ads nearly from the beginning. I assume ads will be inline for OpenAI- I mean the only case they could be separate is in ChatGPT, but I doubt that will be their largest use case.

kridsdale15mo ago

I think it was actually about 5 years from founding to ads on Google.com.

singron5mo ago

Will people use ChatGPT if it's stuffed full of ads? It seems like the belief that ads are turn-key is useful to their valuation, but if ads actually bomb, then they will take a huge hit.

gizajob5mo ago

ChatGPT chatting ads halfway through its answer is going to be totally rad.

silon425mo ago

Imagine the emails / reports with copy-pasted ads.

JCM95mo ago

For using GenAI as search I’d agree with you but I don’t think it’s as easy/obvious for most other use cases.

flyinglizard5mo ago

I'm sure lots of ChatGPT interactions are for making buying decisions, and just how easy would it be to prioritize certain products to the top? This is where the real money is. With SEO, you were making the purchase decision and companies paid to get their wares in front of you; now with AI, it's making the buy decision mostly on its own.

Spooky235mo ago

No way. It’s 2025, society is totally different, you have to think about what is the new normal. They are too big to fail at this point — so much of the S&P 500 valuation is tied to AI (Microsoft, Google, Tesla, etc) they are arguable strategic to the US.

Fascist corporatism will throw them in for whatever Intel rescue plan Nvidia is forced to participate in. If the midterms flip congress or if we have another presidential election, maybe something will change.

jfyi5mo ago

I agree. If OpenAI isn't strategic to the US, that damn sure is Altman's current goal. The moment he can close the sale on "we have to get there before China" ad revenue won't be a concern any more.

I'd say it's a bit of a Hail Mary and could go either way, but that's as an outsider looking in. Who really knows?

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