Effectively every single H100 in existence now will be e-waste in 5 years or less. Not exactly railroad infrastructure here, or even dark fiber.
That which survived, at least. A whole lot of rail infrastructure was not viable and soon became waste of its own. There was, at one time, ten rail lines around my parts, operated by six different railway companies. Only one of them remains fully intact to this day. One other line retained a short section that is still standing, which is now being used for car storage, but was mostly dismantled. The rest are completely gone.
When we look back in 100 years, the total amortization cost for the "winner" won't look so bad. The “picks and axes” (i.e. H100s) that soon wore down, but were needed to build the grander vision won't even be a second thought in hindsight.
How long did it take for 9 out of 10 of those rail lines to become nonviable? If they lasted (say) 50 years instead of 100, because that much rail capacity was (say) obsoleted by the advent of cars and trucks, that's still pretty good.
Records from the time are few and far between, but, from what I can tell, it looks like they likely weren't ever actually viable.
The records do show that the railways were profitable for a short while, but it seems only because the government paid for the infrastructure. If they had to incur the capital expenditure themselves, the math doesn't look like it would math.
Imagine where the LLM businesses would be if the government paid for all the R&D and training costs!
H100s are effectively consumables used in the construction of the metaphorical rail. The actual rail lines had their own fare share of necessary tools that retained little to no residual value after use as well. This isn't anything unique.
This remains to be seen. H100 is 3 years old now, and is still the workhorse of all the major AI shops. When there's something that is obviously better for training, these are still going to be used for inference.
If what you say is true, you could find a A100 for cheap/free right now. But check out the prices.
This is definitely not true, the A100 came out just over 5 years ago and still goes for low five figures used on eBay.
Are we? I was under the impression that the tracks degraded due to stresses like heat/rain/etc. and had to be replaced periodically.
I am an avid rail-to-trail cycler and more recently a student of the history of the rail industry. The result was my realization that the ultimate benefit to society and to me personally is the existence of these amazing outdoor recreation venues. Here in Western PA we have many hundreds of miles of rail-to-trail. My recent realization is that it would be totally impossible for our modern society to create these trails today. They were built with blood, sweat, tears and much dynamite - and not a single thought towards environmental impact studies. I estimate that only ten percent of the rail lines built around here are still used for rail. Another ten percent have become recreational trails. That percent continues to rise as more abandoned rail lines transition to recreational use. Here in Western PA we add a couple dozen miles every year.
After reading this very interesting discussion, I've come to believe that the AI arms race is mainly just transferring capital into the pockets of the tool vendors - just as was the case with the railroads. The NVidia chips will be amortized over 10 years and the models over perhaps 2 years. Neither has any lasting value. So the analogy to rail is things like dynamite and rolling stock. What in AI will maintain value? I think the data center physical plants, power plants and transmission networks will maintain their value longer. I think the exabytes of training data will maintain their value even longer.
What will become the equivalent of rail-to-trail? I doubt that any of the laborers or capitalists building rail lines had foreseen that their ultimate value to society would be that people like me could enjoy a bike ride. What are the now unforeseen long-term benefit to society of this AI investment boom?
Rail consolidated over 100 years into just a handful of firms in North America, and my understanding is that these firms are well-run and fairly profitable. I expect a much more rapid shakeout and consolidation to happen in AI. And I'm putting my money on the winners being Apple first and Google second.
Another analogy I just thought of - the question of will the AI models eventually run on big-iron or in ballpoint pens. It is similar to the dichotomy of large-scale vs miniaturized nuclear power sources in Asimov's Foundation series (a core and memorable theme of the book that I haven't seen in the TV series).
