EU rules have everything to do with it. Meeting EMV with offline counters is tricky to get right. The reason I can confidently claim the SCA drove the migration of online transactions is because I was responsible for the technical implementation of SCA for a bank, and was part of the industry wide conversations that happened as banks figured out who they would comply with the rules, and tried to figure out what wiggle room existed. So I know SCA was a driver, because I talked to the people making this decisions.

> which requires asymmetric cryptography. (Otherwise, you could trivially forge valid-looking cards and offline terminals would be none the wise since they obviously don't hold the symmetric keys for every card issued; that would be way too risky).

This is where you are simply wrong. Again speaking as someone with actual experience working on this stuff, and having dealt with actual forged offline transactions as well. I can tell you the card uses symmetric encryption, the terminals themselves have zero ability to validate the signature a card produces. The terminals include some data that allows them to validate if a card number is routable, and also a hot list of card numbers to always reject, and thus reject transactions that can never be fulfilled, but they have no way of validating that a specific card or transaction hasn’t been forged.

The entire system depends on the physical security of the chips in cards to make key extraction extremely hard, and to also make the correct mimicking of cards extremely hard. But it’s hardly impossible, and there’s plenty of demonstrated EMV attacks out there in the wild. It’s just that they all hard to replicate, require special equipment, and generally make you look very dodge in the moment because you have to have a weird card with wires running your shelves so you can intercept the card comms. The manufacturer and distribution of the chips in cards is extremely tightly controlled, so you can’t just buy them. In theory anyone with a million dollars and ASIC contract could manufacture their own ICs, but there simply easier ways to steal money.

Ultimately EMV only needs provide enough security to make other methods of stealing more palatable. Cards are used for pretty low value transactions, so breaking EMV isn’t a very scalable way to steal money. You would be better off stealing products from merchants using decent pair of running shoes, rather than creating crazy ways to trick their payment terminals. Running shoes are cheaper and much more accessible than ASIC production.