Show HN: GitHub-native prediction markets using Issues (no DB)

1 points_1tan5mo ago1 comments

I built a tiny prediction market that lives entirely in GitHub Issues—no external database. Each market is a concrete question about repo work, e.g., “Will Issue #123 be closed by 2025-11-15?” Collaborators buy YES/NO shares to express beliefs, and the price (0 - 1) reflects the team’s collective forecast. This helps with planning, prioritization, and making expectations transparent - without real money.

Under the hood: signed JSON snapshots (market and ledger) embedded in issues, LMSR pricing, seq-based optimistic concurrency with retries, and collaborator-only trading.

I haven’t deployed a public instance yet for the repo - planning to do so after incorporating initial feedback. Repo: https://github.com/philippnagel/gantt

I’d love feedback on governance (caps per user, conflicts of interest), which questions are most useful (deadlines, PR merges, releases), and the UX of comment-driven trading.

1 comments

wwwpatdelcom5mo ago

Cool idea, forked it to OpenPredictionMarkets .. .thanks!

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Show HN: GitHub-native prediction markets using Issues (no DB)

1 points_1tan5mo ago1 comments

Under the hood: signed JSON snapshots (market and ledger) embedded in issues, LMSR pricing, seq-based optimistic concurrency with retries, and collaborator-only trading.

I haven’t deployed a public instance yet for the repo - planning to do so after incorporating initial feedback. Repo: https://github.com/philippnagel/gantt

I’d love feedback on governance (caps per user, conflicts of interest), which questions are most useful (deadlines, PR merges, releases), and the UX of comment-driven trading.