Once the new restrictions come into affect, all it takes is a false positive from an algorithm and you would lose the right to develop applications forever.
They fully intend to put the metaphorical kibosh on F-Droid. This could start with some employee who knows that, somewhat independently doing what they think will please their employer and know will not get them into trouble, followed by feigned apathy from higher ups. Or, perhaps it's just a simple mistake. What we do know is that Google is not to be trusted.
