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0 pointsAlotOfReading3mo ago0 comments

    the hurdle to full autonomous driving was basically jumped by Tesla this year.

Tesla doesn't have driverless operations anywhere, and their Austin fleet consists of <30 vehicles with full time safety drivers that have a far worse safety record than Waymo vehicles.

It's not nothing, but it's a long way from being a complete system (let alone the obviously superior one).

0 comments

jaimex23mo ago

2026 will be an interesting year for sure. I personally don't see a future where Waymo or any Lidar solution stick around till 2030.

Tesla are on their final stretch now and can basically manufacture the entire Waymo fleet in Robotaxis in a week.

UltraSane3mo ago

I really do not understand comments like this. Waymo cars are actually autonomous. They can drive around empty for thousands of miles with no issues. No Tesla has ever driven empty for any significant length of time.

jaimex23mo ago

Yes, because Waymo is a specialist at it's geofenced area.

Tesla's are generalists, they can self drive in places Waymo's simple cannot and never will be able to.

One of these can scale, the other cannot.

vardump3mo ago

IIRC, Tesla's safety record is about 30% worse than Waymo. The gap has been closing rapidly. It's not that long time ago Tesla made an order of magnitude more mistakes than Waymo.

AlotOfReadingOP3mo ago

That's with safety drivers, a small fleet, and literally only the most recent data (since it wasn't broken out before). My experience with AV deployments is that your incident rate is significantly different once you remove humans, and small fleet sizes/deployment areas hide a lot of long tail issues.

Waymo is operating at a much larger scale across a huge range of conditions with hardware that's generations behind their latest and still performing better.

vardump3mo ago

Ok, I guess we'll need to wait until Tesla removes the safety drivers to see the whole truth.

2 more replies

tziki3mo ago

If that was true they would've already released a full, no safety driver service. They have not.

UltraSane3mo ago

That is WITH humans ready to take over! So it is really terrible.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsAlotOfReading3mo ago0 comments

    the hurdle to full autonomous driving was basically jumped by Tesla this year.

Tesla doesn't have driverless operations anywhere, and their Austin fleet consists of <30 vehicles with full time safety drivers that have a far worse safety record than Waymo vehicles.

It's not nothing, but it's a long way from being a complete system (let alone the obviously superior one).

0 comments

jaimex23mo ago

2026 will be an interesting year for sure. I personally don't see a future where Waymo or any Lidar solution stick around till 2030.

Tesla are on their final stretch now and can basically manufacture the entire Waymo fleet in Robotaxis in a week.

UltraSane3mo ago

jaimex23mo ago

Yes, because Waymo is a specialist at it's geofenced area.

Tesla's are generalists, they can self drive in places Waymo's simple cannot and never will be able to.

One of these can scale, the other cannot.

vardump3mo ago

IIRC, Tesla's safety record is about 30% worse than Waymo. The gap has been closing rapidly. It's not that long time ago Tesla made an order of magnitude more mistakes than Waymo.

AlotOfReadingOP3mo ago

Waymo is operating at a much larger scale across a huge range of conditions with hardware that's generations behind their latest and still performing better.

vardump3mo ago

Ok, I guess we'll need to wait until Tesla removes the safety drivers to see the whole truth.

2 more replies

tziki3mo ago

If that was true they would've already released a full, no safety driver service. They have not.

UltraSane3mo ago

That is WITH humans ready to take over! So it is really terrible.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse