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0 pointsmytailorisrich3mo ago0 comments

It is true [1][2]. I don't know how the graph you quote is calculated (no inflation?) but clearly the GDP hasn't grown 30% since 2020 (31,516 to 41,184), LOL. 6% growth a year would be a wet dream anywhere in the developped world. The GDP grew only 1.3% over the last 12 months and the population had grown 1.1% over the preceding 12 months... So at best economic growth barely exceeds population growth but overall it's flat to down.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/times...

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

> However, trade with the EU was declining as a proportion of total trade even before Brexit

Yes, it has slightly declined, probably because of Brexit. The point is that it is one thing to say that we are "free" to do as we please, but the reality is not so simple if that means taking a massive hit on 41% of our exports! This is the whole Brexit story.

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graemep3mo ago

> the reality is not so simple if that means taking a massive hit on 41% of our exports

Is it actually 41%? Is it a massive hit? What is the economic impact of small trade frictions on a declining proportion of exports. The main reason for the decline is not Brexit, it is that the EU is a declining proportion of the world economy because Europe is the slowest growing region of the world.

> This is the whole Brexit story.

No, it really is not. Similar economies in the EU are doing about as badly as the UK so you cannot blame Brexit

> So at best economic growth barely exceeds population growth but overall it's flat to down.

One of the replies to my comment links to a graph at constant currency and is shows low growth so you might stretch to flat/stagnant, but definitely not down.

mytailorisrichOP3mo ago

In your strange haste to prove me wrong you have not taken the time to read my comment.

Yes, currently 41% of UK exports go to the EU.

The point is that we have a deal with the EU for access. But that might change. If we went low tax/low regs the EU may very well retaliate by putting barriers to trade with us. This would seriously hurt our exports (a "big hit"...). Hence, reality of being "free to do what we want" outisde of the EU is not so simple.

This is the whole Brexit story because that has been the debate of "freedom" vs "alignment" and issues of access to EU market since the Brexit referendum.

> but definitely not down.

The graph shows a decline, as said and repeated... Obviously not over the long term but I never suggested that.

graemep3mo ago

> The graph shows a decline

If you pick a time period over which that is true. That proves what exactly? European economies did badly in 2023?

> If we went low tax/low regs the EU may very well retaliate by putting barriers to trade with us.

The same applies to any free trade agreement, or exporting anywhere, as the US has recently proved.

The EU would also lose from higher trade barriers.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsmytailorisrich3mo ago0 comments

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/times...

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

> However, trade with the EU was declining as a proportion of total trade even before Brexit

0 comments

graemep3mo ago

> the reality is not so simple if that means taking a massive hit on 41% of our exports

> This is the whole Brexit story.

No, it really is not. Similar economies in the EU are doing about as badly as the UK so you cannot blame Brexit

> So at best economic growth barely exceeds population growth but overall it's flat to down.

One of the replies to my comment links to a graph at constant currency and is shows low growth so you might stretch to flat/stagnant, but definitely not down.

mytailorisrichOP3mo ago

In your strange haste to prove me wrong you have not taken the time to read my comment.

Yes, currently 41% of UK exports go to the EU.

This is the whole Brexit story because that has been the debate of "freedom" vs "alignment" and issues of access to EU market since the Brexit referendum.

> but definitely not down.

The graph shows a decline, as said and repeated... Obviously not over the long term but I never suggested that.

graemep3mo ago

> The graph shows a decline

If you pick a time period over which that is true. That proves what exactly? European economies did badly in 2023?

> If we went low tax/low regs the EU may very well retaliate by putting barriers to trade with us.

The same applies to any free trade agreement, or exporting anywhere, as the US has recently proved.

The EU would also lose from higher trade barriers.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse