The problem with gambling is that the house never loses, and when they are losing, they can kick you out and call you a cheater. At the very least, there needs to be severe restrictions on what casinos can do to people who are winning, and rein them in so that they don't use their money, power, influence, and heavy-handed security, in ways that are grossly unfair to the consumer. The power is too much in the hands of the casino, and really needs to swing back towards the consumer, otherwise people get taken for a ride, literally and figuratively.
Which is why the optimal play is usually to bet it all on the first play. Then walk away, win or lose.
Nobody can claim with a straight face that the "Christian Right" movement in the US can be classified as wholesome love-thy-neighbour Christianity. Because from where I'm standing, it's far from it.
There are much bigger fish to fry at the moment. Gambling does wreck families, though.
We do not have any fish to fry. We want to live free from opression from the ones that beieve they should turn others to the Truth.
Why make assertions that even a cursory search can disprove?
- Some people have reported no benefit.
- The effect may be lower than counteracting chemically addictive behavior (e.g. eating, drinking, smoking, drugs).
I think we can speculate with what we know today that there is SOME effect, but more data/studies are needed to see how large effect really is. Particularly as the overall effect is lower, you need more data to separate it from noise/placebo.
It has to be understood by older people that for many young people the only way to afford a lifestyle previously achievable in many cities with a basic job is to win the lottery.
Anyhow, this is why a better should stick to platforms that are unbiased.
Polymarket has me intrigued though. Especially stuff like their geopolitics section...as a measure of how good one's read of the world is. Still gambling in disguise though
I think the folks who get addicted must have much lower loss aversion and higher thrill-seeking. People like me can’t become even regular recreational gamblers (betting small amounts without ruining their lives) because it’s too frustrating.
There are many ways to obtain such an edge, and the casinos are highly motivated to prevent that from happening.
Contrast that to normal "sports betting" - which aims to block skilled betters, and squeeze suckers for their cash.
That's why Kalshi/Polymarket don't care about winners, they don't lose money to them, others do.
It's all gambling, as most of day trading also is.
That topic had over a 10% “yes” chance in January. Betting no on that is better taking out a CD.
Not because he doesn't do insane things, obviously, the market is just not at all good at pricing it.
To be fair, we don't need to find little green men in a UFO. It's sufficient to e.g. find fossils of extinct microorganisms on Mars, which is a slim possibility that's a goal of the Mars Sample Return mission.
These markets also have low volume at reasonable prices. If you bought $10K of "no" right now for next year, you would only get an 8% return, not 10%. You could execute better trades to get better prices, but the odds also become more sane over the year. The S&P 500 is also up 18% YTD (13% YoY for the last 5) and you can buy as much of that as you want.
Being addicted is not an intelligence criterion because every human is addicted to something -good or bad.
That's actually a basic principle of how we function cognitively.
- https://psychiatryofscottsdale.com/psychiatrists-honest-take...
- https://psychiatryofscottsdale.com/were-all-addicted-to-some...
Smart people will treat it like any other “trading” or “arbitrage” opportunity, given half a chance.
I like betting myself, but I don't think abstaining from betting is maladaptive at all. Most of the bets we encounter in the real world are negative EV.
It isn't to chase a couple of bucks either. Billy Walter has made hundreds of millions. A recent court case leaked that Tony Bloom's syndicate was making £200m in profit per year. This activity helps make these markets more efficient.
There is nothing wrong with gambling. Fast food kills tens of thousands a year in the US, hundreds of billions spent on healthcare and life expectancy is still terrible because of obesity. Should we ban fast food? Why? Many other people don't have a problme. The idea of personal responsibility will always be completely abhorrent to some part of the population.
This isn’t all that different from alcohol.
The idea of personal responsibility is also way overrated by some part of the population like you, gambling is addictive and a net negative to society. Problem gamblers ruin not only their life but of their families as well, it's an addiction with a very high rate of suicide.
Allowing it to be done through your phone is like supplying opioids at the candy store. Not everyone gets addicted but you certainly increase access to the ones in most danger of becoming one, and for what purpose?
Personal responsibility doesn't ever solve systemic issues, you are defending the increase of a systemic issue and blaming the victims which it's the actual abhorrent thing...
Seeing the statistics about young American men's betting habits makes me feel old.
The market is moving towards a model that is more similar to financial markets with price discovery from informed participants. It enables higher volume, this business model is used by Asian books such as SBOBet...but the market is where it is now, and most places are also using beards to bet at soft books too, and those books will continue to try to protect their business as it is now.
Btw, one of the major issues that explain why books are soft is the use of marketing to fund growth. If that spending wasn't required, it would change the operating model completely to one where gambling companies took a spread. But the marketing spend is the main avenue of competition, not price.
This isn't a smartass remark "stock market is gambling". I literally mean that the financial markets went through all this bullshit 100 years ago, and came up with rules to make them fairer. For example, you won't be blocked from the stock market just because you do really well.
With financial markets you are betting against other users. The ones running the market take fees on each transaction, so they don't care whether you win or lose. Their incentive is just to keep you making transactions.
Learn what a "broker" is.
These, eToro and the like, aren't "brokers" so much as online betting platforms for the stock market.
A typical broker like Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab etc. acts as a gateway to the market, other traders act as counterparties, and is bound by strict regulation
These "neo brokers" as you call them don't. Those "securities" you're buying are offered by the broker, at a price set by the broker, the broker may be the counterparty and they can't be transferred. Just like a casino.
This is all laid out in the terms and conditions for anybody who cares to read them, e.g. [0], sections 7.1 and 17.
If you want to gamble based on stock prices using leverage, at least do it right: use derivatives. They're leveraged but thoroughly regulated and traded on central exchanges.
[0]: https://www.etoro.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/eToro-EU-Te...
I don't like picking on definitions, because then we start discussing the definitions instead of the underlying points. But if you're going to make such definitive statements, then I have to reply with "depends on your definition of gambling".
> gambling: the practice or activity of betting : the practice of risking money or other stakes in a game or bet
Isn’t the point to let all players have a fairly equal chance? Someone’s going to win the money regardless, so it’s not like you’re saving money.
If the same data savvy people are just going to win most of the time, why would people bother playing? Ultimately you would not have enough players and the industry collapses. I don’t understand why this makes the casinos the bad guys.
Do you genuinely think this is why clever players are banned?
> Someone’s going to win the money regardless, so it’s not like you’re saving money.
What? banning people who have a better edge vs. the house won't save money?
