They will increase emissions more slowly than European countries did at the same phase in their development, but emissions will still go up a ton compared to now. China's CO2 emissions per capita is now almost double that of France. India has gone from 0.5 tons/person in 1980 to over 2 tons/person today. They're building some renewables, but they're also building a ton of coal and gas. The EU retired 11 GW of coal in 2024, while China built 30GW and India built another 6 GW.

It's not just economics, it's logistics. Countries like Bangladesh don't have the space to build wind and solar, and they don't have the sophistication to manage long distance grids with batteries, EVs, etc. That's why they keep building more coal. They're not stupid, there is just are practical concerns these countries confront that don't exist in countries that have more central organizational capacity.

And the math just sucks. Say countries like India industrialize with a high percentage of renewables, etc., so they end up with developed economies at just double the current CO2 output of India (4 tons/capita). That would mean that the growth in CO2 output from the subcontinent alone (India+Pakistan+Bangladesh) would exceed the current CO2 output of the entire EU.